· Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.· Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies..· Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.· Steady output, combined with resumption of normal plant operations, would coincide with seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks.· Lower margins earlier this month provided an incentive for refiners to adjust output.· Any such moves would help to limit any supply-demand imbalance.· Higher margins complicate any such decision to adjust output, raising prospect of larger supply-demand imbalance. .· Taiwan’s base oils exports show signs of dipping in June 2025 to lowest level since start of the year.· Slowdown in shipments could partially cushion impact of improving availability in Asia-Pacific market.· Heavy-grade exports in June 2025 account for largest share of Taiwan’s base oils shipments in five months..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks rise to three-month high..· Exports rise as shipments from domestic suppliers climb to three-month high..· Rise in exports from domestic sources precedes prospect of further pick-up in flows from Singapore in coming months following expected start-up of new production capacity in the island-state.· Exports over last four weeks get further boost from rise in re-exports of supplies from other markets to highest in more than three years.· Sustainability of re-export volumes at that level could be challenging in face of sustained slowdown in Singapore’s base oils imports in last four weeks to lowest level this year..· Imports could stay lower if planned pick-up in domestic base oils production capacity in coming months curbs need for the kind of additional volumes that Singapore imported in late-2024 and Q1 2025..· South Korea’s base oils supply exceeds demand in May 2025 for first time in four months amid recovery in domestic output and still-low exports..· Replenished stocks leave refiners well positioned to boost Group II base oils exports and to cushion impact of Group III base oils maintenance work at end-Q2 2025 and early Q3 2025.· Any such rise in exports raises prospect of adding to regional supply at same time as demand faces seasonal slowdown..· China’s Group II base oils supply, or output and imports combined, holds steady in Jan-May 2025 from year-earlier levels, contrasting with dip in supply of Group I base oils and rise in supply of Group III base oils..· China’s falling Group I base oils supply contrasts with rising Group I base oils imports in Jan-May 2025, boosting the import-share of total Group I supply.· China’s steady or rising supply of premium-grade base oils contrasts with falling Group II and Group III base oils imports in Jan-May 2025, cutting the import-share of total premium-grade supply..· Trend highlights China’s growing self-sufficiency for premium-grade base oils and growing reliance on overseas markets for Group I base oils.· Trend points to change in opportunities and challenges for overseas suppliers..· Saudi Arabia’s base oils shipments from ports of Yanbu/Jeddah show signs of slipping in June 2025 after higher shipment volumes in April-May 2025..· Pick-up in shipments in April-May 2025 coincides with/helps to balance out impact of plant-maintenance work in US, Europe, Middle East and India during that period.· Slowdown in shipments in June 2025 follows completion of most of that plant-maintenance work.· Dip in shipments could slow pace of any build-up of surplus supplies ahead of seasonal slowdown in demand during Q3 2025..China’s May base oils demand falls.S Korea’s May base oils output rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
