· Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold at elevated levels vs Singapore gasoil, even if lower than in Q2 2025.· Firm heavy-grade margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output, even amid signs of pick-up in surplus supplies.· Asia’s Group II heavy-grade prices hold at levels that keep open arbitrage from US and keep shut arbitrage to Americas..· Price differentials could attract more heavy-grade supplies to Asia, adding to region’s surplus volumes.· Dynamic could put pressure on further adjustment in prices to deter shipment of additional supplies to Asia.· Relatively firm price-differentials could alternatively suggest size of any surplus volumes is manageable..· Asia’s Group II light-grade base oils prices hold at lower levels relative to gasoil prices.· Weaker price differentials and firm diesel premium to crude incentivize refiners to redirect more feedstock supplies to middle-distillates pool.· Arbitrage to move light-grade shipments gets harder to work to China, holds steady to markets like India and UAE.· Dynamic points to steady-to-muted demand, limiting sellers’ leverage to adjust prices.· Dynamic adds to incentive for refiners to trim output..· Taiwan’s base oils exports hold at elevated levels in July 2025 even with slowdown in shipments in past week.· Heavy-grade base oils continue to account for larger share of Taiwan’s exports in July 2025.· Singapore’s base oils exports likely to fall sharply in July 2025 from previous month, with shipments over last four weeks falling to five-month low..· Dip in shipments could cushion impact of seasonal slowdown in regional demand and prospect of pick-up in supplies from other key producers in Asia region.· Singapore’s Group I base oils supply gets boost from recent arrival of shipments from Russia and Saudi Arabia.· Singapore’s imports of Group I base oils over last four weeks duly rise to highest level in four months..· Pick-up in Group I supplies coincides with, helps to cushion impact of plant-maintenance work in Thailand..· Singapore’s base oils imports from Europe and US rise to four-month high so far in July 2025..· Recovery follows slump in imports in Q2 2025, but remains below unusually high volumes in H2 2024 and Q1 2025..· Imports from US and Europe could stay below those levels or fall further because of expected rise in Singapore’s own production capacity in coming months.· Dip in imports in Q2 2025 coincided with and likely partly reflected impact of plant-maintenance in US and Europe.· Any further dip in imports in H2 2025 would be despite relative lack of plant-maintenance work in those markets.· Dynamic would put pressure on more US/Europe supplies to target other markets instead. .· Gradual restart of base oils units in China raises prospect of rise in domestic output in Q3 2025.· Trend could have larger impact on overseas suppliers of premium-grade base oils.· China’s imports of Group II and Group III base oils account for larger-than-usual share of country’s Group II/Group III supply in June 2025..· Larger share coincides with and cushions impact of sharper fall in domestic Group II and Group III base oils output in June 2025.· Recovery in domestic output could leave imports reverting to more typical, lower share of total supply..· India’s base oils output edges up in June 2025 following completion of some plant-maintenance work..· Even with completion of additional maintenance work in H2 July 2025, India’s rangebound base oils output in recent years contrasts with steady rise in domestic lube consumption.· Trend triggers growing gap between domestic output and consumption. .· Growing supply-shortfall increases India’s reliance on base oils imports.· Planned start-up of new base oils production capacity in India in H2 2025 would reduce that reliance on base oils imports.· Any delay to start-up of new production capacity would conversely increase India’s reliance on base oils imports to meet ongoing rise in consumption..· Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports show signs of slowing in July 2025 after rising to five-month high in June 2025..· Dip in shipments in July 2025 could prolong slowdown in flows of Group I base oils from Middle East to India..China’s June base oils demand falls.India June base oils supply lags demand.Saudi Arabia’s June Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 July.Base Oil News stories and analyses also available on the ICIS platform
