· Asia’s Group I/II base oils price premium to feedstock/gasoil prices stays unusually high.· High premium points to tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Prospect of slowing demand could cushion impact of tight Group I base oils supply in Q2 2025.· Prospect of slowing demand could magnify impact of improving Group II base oils supply over coming weeks.· Group II supply surplus could stay more limited for now because of ongoing plant maintenance work and refiners’ need to replenish depleted stocks after plant maintenance work. · Tighter availability of Group I supplies could support firmer demand for Group II, further slowing build-up of surplus Group II supplies.· Any recovery in Group II supply would increase need for pick-up in arbitrage shipments to markets like Middle East and Americas.· FOB Asia Group II price discount to prices in Middle East remains relatively steady for heavy grades, widens for light grades in April 2025..· Mixed price trends in Middle East coincide with signs that blenders have sufficient stocks, curbing urgency to lock in supplies if they deem prices to be too high. · Mixed price trends suggest sellers face pressure to clear light grades, less pressure to move heavy grades..· Taiwan’s base oils exports see marked slowdown in past week after firm export volumes in first three weeks of April 2025.· China’s base oils imports rise to one-year high in March 2025..· Imports’ share of China’s base oils supply rises to 27% of the total in March 2025..· Higher share of imports likely reflects pick-up in term volumes from sources like Singapore to cover for lower domestic output during plant maintenance work.· Scenario raises prospect of imports falling back to more typical share of around 20% of total supply once China’s domestic refiners resume normal operations.· Singapore’s base oils exports to China stay high so far in April 2025..· Firm volumes suggest China’s imports could stay higher than usual in April 2025, with key maintenance work in the country set to end in May 2025..· Singapore’s still-firm flows to China contrast with dip in total exports in past four weeks..· Drop in shipments suggests rise in exports in Feb-March 2025 was temporary and to cover factors like rise in demand and plant maintenance work in the region.· Drop in exports partially cushions impact of rise in supply from other sources as plant maintenance work draws to a close..· Singapore’s imports from US and Europe combined rise in March 2025 and Q1 2025 to highest since H1 2021..· Shipments likely consist of Group I and Group II base oils.· Rise in imports coincides with rise in Singapore’s re-exports of base oils from other markets in Q1 2025 to highest since H1 2023..· Rise in imports and re-exports helps to boost Singapore’s total exports, and Asia’s supply of Group I and Group II base oils.· Rise in supply helps to cushion impact of heavy round of plant maintenance in Asia.· Pick-up in supply precedes expected rise in Singapore’s output and exports following start-up of new production capacity later this year.· Recent rise in exports, and in imports from US and Europe, shows signs of slowing sharply to more typical levels in April 2025..· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia exceed South Korea’s shipments to the region in Q1 2025 for second time in a row..· Singapore’s exports exceeded South Korea’s exports to the region in just two quarters during the previous four years.· Singapore’s rising exports share likely partly reflects impact of plant maintenance in South Korea in Q1 2025.· Rising share and volumes also provide Singapore with key outlet for additional supplies following expected start-up of new production capacity in coming months..· Asia’s Group I base oils supply set to get further squeeze from ongoing pause in Singapore imports from Italy and UK since early-March 2025.· Arrival of shipment from Russia in past week partially cushions slowdown from Europe.· Singapore’s Group I base oils imports over last four weeks still dip compared with recent months..· Any dip in Singapore’s Group I supply would coincide with maintenance work in Thailand, Japan and Middle East in Q2 2025..China’s March base oils demand rises.Singapore’s March base oils exports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
· Asia’s Group I/II base oils price premium to feedstock/gasoil prices stays unusually high.· High premium points to tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Prospect of slowing demand could cushion impact of tight Group I base oils supply in Q2 2025.· Prospect of slowing demand could magnify impact of improving Group II base oils supply over coming weeks.· Group II supply surplus could stay more limited for now because of ongoing plant maintenance work and refiners’ need to replenish depleted stocks after plant maintenance work. · Tighter availability of Group I supplies could support firmer demand for Group II, further slowing build-up of surplus Group II supplies.· Any recovery in Group II supply would increase need for pick-up in arbitrage shipments to markets like Middle East and Americas.· FOB Asia Group II price discount to prices in Middle East remains relatively steady for heavy grades, widens for light grades in April 2025..· Mixed price trends in Middle East coincide with signs that blenders have sufficient stocks, curbing urgency to lock in supplies if they deem prices to be too high. · Mixed price trends suggest sellers face pressure to clear light grades, less pressure to move heavy grades..· Taiwan’s base oils exports see marked slowdown in past week after firm export volumes in first three weeks of April 2025.· China’s base oils imports rise to one-year high in March 2025..· Imports’ share of China’s base oils supply rises to 27% of the total in March 2025..· Higher share of imports likely reflects pick-up in term volumes from sources like Singapore to cover for lower domestic output during plant maintenance work.· Scenario raises prospect of imports falling back to more typical share of around 20% of total supply once China’s domestic refiners resume normal operations.· Singapore’s base oils exports to China stay high so far in April 2025..· Firm volumes suggest China’s imports could stay higher than usual in April 2025, with key maintenance work in the country set to end in May 2025..· Singapore’s still-firm flows to China contrast with dip in total exports in past four weeks..· Drop in shipments suggests rise in exports in Feb-March 2025 was temporary and to cover factors like rise in demand and plant maintenance work in the region.· Drop in exports partially cushions impact of rise in supply from other sources as plant maintenance work draws to a close..· Singapore’s imports from US and Europe combined rise in March 2025 and Q1 2025 to highest since H1 2021..· Shipments likely consist of Group I and Group II base oils.· Rise in imports coincides with rise in Singapore’s re-exports of base oils from other markets in Q1 2025 to highest since H1 2023..· Rise in imports and re-exports helps to boost Singapore’s total exports, and Asia’s supply of Group I and Group II base oils.· Rise in supply helps to cushion impact of heavy round of plant maintenance in Asia.· Pick-up in supply precedes expected rise in Singapore’s output and exports following start-up of new production capacity later this year.· Recent rise in exports, and in imports from US and Europe, shows signs of slowing sharply to more typical levels in April 2025..· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia exceed South Korea’s shipments to the region in Q1 2025 for second time in a row..· Singapore’s exports exceeded South Korea’s exports to the region in just two quarters during the previous four years.· Singapore’s rising exports share likely partly reflects impact of plant maintenance in South Korea in Q1 2025.· Rising share and volumes also provide Singapore with key outlet for additional supplies following expected start-up of new production capacity in coming months..· Asia’s Group I base oils supply set to get further squeeze from ongoing pause in Singapore imports from Italy and UK since early-March 2025.· Arrival of shipment from Russia in past week partially cushions slowdown from Europe.· Singapore’s Group I base oils imports over last four weeks still dip compared with recent months..· Any dip in Singapore’s Group I supply would coincide with maintenance work in Thailand, Japan and Middle East in Q2 2025..China’s March base oils demand rises.Singapore’s March base oils exports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
