· Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices stay high relative to feedstock/gasoil prices.· Firm margins point to ongoing supply-tightness even with completion of most plant maintenance work.· Firm margins suggest supply-tightness continues to outweigh signs of more muted demand, incentivizing refiners to boost output of heavy grades.· Any disconnect between prices and supply fundamentals could trigger faster rise in surplus volumes.· Asia’s light-grade prices stay relatively firm in narrower range vs feedstock/gasoil prices.· Rangebound margins curb incentive for refiners to adjust output.· Refiners could instead seek to move surplus supplies to outlets like Middle East and Americas.· Premium of CFR UAE Group II N150 over FOB Asia cargo price holds steady after narrowing earlier this month..· Any further fall in light-grade prices in markets like Middle East would put pressure on Asia refiners to adjust prices to make the arbitrage feasible.· Any such price adjustments could put further pressure on margins..· Taiwan’s base oils exports show signs of staying at elevated level in May 2025, extending period of high export volumes since Feb 2025.· Light and heavy-grade base oils account for similar share of Taiwan’s Group II shipments so far in May 2025.· Singapore’s base oils exports stay higher over last four weeks amid sustained rise in shipments of supplies originating from other markets..· Dynamic contrasts with March 2025 when surge in shipments from domestic sources supported high export volumes.· Higher export volumes from other markets could continue for longer following arrival in past week of large shipment from the Netherlands.· Singapore’s base oils imports from suppliers of Group I base oils extend fall over last four weeks to close to lowest since H1 2024..· Dip in shipments coincides with Group I plant maintenance in Thailand in May 2025..· South Korea’s base oils exports to India stay higher than usual in April 2025 for third month.· High shipments lift total three-month export volume to highest in a year and second-highest since end-2021..· High shipments help to cover for round of stock-replenishment and plant maintenance work in India in April-May 2025.· South Korea’s Group II base oils supply likely rises during Q2 2025 following completion of plant maintenance work in April 2025.· Higher supply could increase importance of exports to India staying high to avoid build-up of surplus supplies.· Exports to India could instead face pressure to fall following completion of plant maintenance work in India and ahead of seasonal slowdown in demand.· Any such slowdown would put pressure on supplies from South Korea to target other markets instead..· Base oils exports from Asia’s key suppliers fall to three-month low in April 2025.· Asia's three-month average export volume continues to trend up in April 2025 to highest in almost two years..· Rising three-month-average volume reflects higher-than-usual exports in Feb-March 2025.· Rising three-month-average volume, combined with weaker-than-expected lube demand from end-Q1 2025, curbs urgency for buyers to procure replenishment supplies.· Base oils exports from Asia’s key suppliers to southeast Asia hold firm in April 2025 and well above year-earlier levels..· Firm export volumes, combined with weaker-than-expected demand, could leave regional blenders with healthy inventory levels..S Korea April exports to India stay high.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 May
