· Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.· Firm margins point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Margins hold firm even with prospect of rise in surplus base oils supply in Asia in Q3 2025 in response to pick-up in output and slowdown in demand.· Surge in shipments to markets like Middle East removes portion of surplus from Asia, limiting regional supply-build.· Any subsequent build-up of surplus supply could be more manageable if regional demand revives after summer lull.· Signs of pick-up in surplus supplies in Asia, Europe, Middle East and US could instead prompt buyers to hold back in anticipation of lower prices.· Any such moves could compound additional pick-up in supplies.· CFR India base oils price-premium to FOB Asia cargo price narrows simultaneously for Group I and Group II heavy grades..· Last time that CFR Group I and Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB Asia price fell simultaneously was in early-April 2025.· Simultaneous drop in CFR India price-premium coincides with improving availability of Group I and Group II heavy grades.· Improving availability of both grades curbs buyers’ need to procure additional supplies of one grade to supplement tighter availability of other grade.· Improving availability curbs urgency to lock in supplies.· Asia’ supply could face further upward pressure amid lighter round of plant-maintenance in Sept-Oct 2025.· Any postponement of planned plant-maintenance work in Asia later in 2025 would add further to supplies.· Any shipments from new production capacity in Asia would add even more additional supplies..· Taiwan’s base oils cargo flows see strong pick-up in activity in past week after pause since early-Aug 2025.· Exports still show signs of staying lower in Aug 2025 than in recent months. · Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of reverting to more typical levels in Aug 2025..· Singapore’s base oils exports may need to rely more on supplies from domestic rather than overseas sources to maintain steady flows following sharp dip in imports in recent weeks..· Slowdown includes pause in recent recovery in imports from Europe and US..· Singapore’s requirements for supplies from those markets could ease in coming months as new production capacity begins to ramp up..· China’s Group II base oils supply rises in July 2025 from year earlier, contrasting with drop in Group I and Group III supply..· Group II supply gets further boost from China’s weak Group III price relative to Group II, incentivizing Group III refiners to produce more Group II base oils instead..· Drop in China’s Group III base oils output leaves country more reliant on imports to cover its requirements.· Group III imports’ share of China’s Group III supply duly rebounds in 2025 after slumping in H2 2024..· Dynamic highlights ongoing opportunities in China for some overseas base oils grades.· Dynamic also highlights short-term nature of some of those opportunities and need for flexibility and speed to tap them..· India’s base oils supply from key sources in Asia shows signs of tightening so far in Q3 2025.· South Korea’s base oils exports to India fall to ten-month low in July 2025..· Drop in exports in July 2025 adds to slowdown in shipments to India from other key Asia suppliers like Taiwan and Singapore.· Exports to India from key Asia producers duly falls to ten-month low in July 2025..· Slowdown in shipments raises prosect of drop in India’s imports in Aug 2025.· Any slowdown in imports would follow and partially balance out surge in India’s base oils imports in July 2025.· Slowdown in Singapore’s shipments to India in July 2025 shows signs of partially reversing in Aug 2025.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India over past four weeks recover to highest in more than a month..· India also set to take delivery of more shipments from other sources like Europe and Saudi Arabia in Aug 2025, cushioning slowdown in shipments from Asia.· Any dip in India’s imports in Aug 2025 could curb size of build-up of surplus supplies ahead of seasonal rise in demand from end-Q3..· Asia’s base oils exports to Middle East rise to ten-month high in July 2025, clearing surplus volumes from regional market..· Rise in shipments likely to further boost Asia’s share of global exports to Middle East, after share dips in first four months of 2025 from year-earlier levels..· Asia’s share of global exports to Middle East could rise further following expected ramp-up of new production capacity in Asia in coming weeks.· Any such trend could squeeze further the share of supplies originating from US and Europe..China’s July base oils demand rises.S Korea’s July base oils exports to Middle East rise .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
