· Asia’s base oils demand likely to hold firm amid balanced supplies and steady prices ahead of seasonal rise in lube consumption.· China’s base oil demand could start to revive as activity gradually resumes after week-long public holiday.· Chinese buyers’ cautious stock-building ahead of lunar new year holidays would require more rapid replenishment if seasonal pick-up in demand exceeds low expectations..· Singapore’s base oils exports to China stay similar to year-earlier levels so far this year..· Last year’s exports to China surged in following weeks through March 2023 before sliding from April 2023.· Prospect of steadier exports this year would coincide with China’s higher domestic supply, curbing risk of major supply-build..· Taiwan’s January base oils exports to China rise to ten-month high as buyers replenish depleted inventories before lunar new year holidays..· Domestic price for China’s imported Group II supplies stays at narrower premium to prices for domestic supplies so far in 2024.· Narrower premium suggests slowdown in Taiwan’s base oils exports in late-Jan/early Feb 2024 has muted impact on China market.· Muted impact on China market suggests domestic buyers are comfortable with avoiding major supply-build ahead of spring oil-change season, when demand typically rises..· Asia’s December lube demand rises for seventh time in eight months..· Firm demand provides valuable outlets for region’s refiners, curbs size of base oils supply-build at year-end.· Lube demand in Dec 2023 rises in southeast Asia, falls in northeast Asia.· Trend highlights attraction of supplying a region with diverse growth dynamics.· Philippines’ December base oils/lube imports fall at slowest pace in seven months.· Any extension of that trend would provide additional support for base oils demand in southeast Asia..· Philippines December base oils/lube imports from South Korea rise for seventh time in eight months, supporting surge in imports in 2023.· Philippines’ December imports from Singapore fall for eighth month, triggering slump in imports in 2023..· Trend highlights importance of key outlets in southeast Asia and growing competition between Singapore and South Korea for rising market share of those outlets..· South Korea’s January base oils exports to southeast Asia rise to eleven-month high; shipments to northeast Asia fall to five-month low..· Diverging trade flows follow rise in China’s January base oils output to two-year high, highlight growing importance of southeast Asian market..· India’s January lube demand falls 8pc yoy, holds in narrow range for sixth month..· More muted demand coincides with rising supply in Q4 2023 and signs of still-firm supply in Jan 2024.· Diverging supply-demand trends curb blenders’ urgency to secure additional base oils supplies, give them more leverage to target competitive prices.· India’s base oils demand could still get a boost if blenders expect prices to rise in coming months.· Signs of healthy availability of supplies could delay any such price-gains, curbing attraction of locking in additional supplies.· Signs of still-healthy availability of supplies from sources like US cushion impact of any slowdown in shipments from Saudi Arabia.· India’s base oils demand shows signs of holding firmer for certain grades for which supply is tighter..Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Demand outlook
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to hold firm amid balanced supplies and steady prices ahead of seasonal rise in lube consumption.· China’s base oil demand could start to revive as activity gradually resumes after week-long public holiday.· Chinese buyers’ cautious stock-building ahead of lunar new year holidays would require more rapid replenishment if seasonal pick-up in demand exceeds low expectations..· Singapore’s base oils exports to China stay similar to year-earlier levels so far this year..· Last year’s exports to China surged in following weeks through March 2023 before sliding from April 2023.· Prospect of steadier exports this year would coincide with China’s higher domestic supply, curbing risk of major supply-build..· Taiwan’s January base oils exports to China rise to ten-month high as buyers replenish depleted inventories before lunar new year holidays..· Domestic price for China’s imported Group II supplies stays at narrower premium to prices for domestic supplies so far in 2024.· Narrower premium suggests slowdown in Taiwan’s base oils exports in late-Jan/early Feb 2024 has muted impact on China market.· Muted impact on China market suggests domestic buyers are comfortable with avoiding major supply-build ahead of spring oil-change season, when demand typically rises..· Asia’s December lube demand rises for seventh time in eight months..· Firm demand provides valuable outlets for region’s refiners, curbs size of base oils supply-build at year-end.· Lube demand in Dec 2023 rises in southeast Asia, falls in northeast Asia.· Trend highlights attraction of supplying a region with diverse growth dynamics.· Philippines’ December base oils/lube imports fall at slowest pace in seven months.· Any extension of that trend would provide additional support for base oils demand in southeast Asia..· Philippines December base oils/lube imports from South Korea rise for seventh time in eight months, supporting surge in imports in 2023.· Philippines’ December imports from Singapore fall for eighth month, triggering slump in imports in 2023..· Trend highlights importance of key outlets in southeast Asia and growing competition between Singapore and South Korea for rising market share of those outlets..· South Korea’s January base oils exports to southeast Asia rise to eleven-month high; shipments to northeast Asia fall to five-month low..· Diverging trade flows follow rise in China’s January base oils output to two-year high, highlight growing importance of southeast Asian market..· India’s January lube demand falls 8pc yoy, holds in narrow range for sixth month..· More muted demand coincides with rising supply in Q4 2023 and signs of still-firm supply in Jan 2024.· Diverging supply-demand trends curb blenders’ urgency to secure additional base oils supplies, give them more leverage to target competitive prices.· India’s base oils demand could still get a boost if blenders expect prices to rise in coming months.· Signs of healthy availability of supplies could delay any such price-gains, curbing attraction of locking in additional supplies.· Signs of still-healthy availability of supplies from sources like US cushion impact of any slowdown in shipments from Saudi Arabia.· India’s base oils demand shows signs of holding firmer for certain grades for which supply is tighter..Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Demand outlook