· India’s retail diesel premium to discounted crude oil stays high, incentivizing refiners to maintain high run-rates.· China’s diesel premium to crude holds firm, even firmer vs discounted crude.· China’s diesel demand likely to get seasonal boost amid pick-up in agricultural, construction activity.· Plant maintenance work throughout Asia-Pacific in Q2 2023 likely to impact trade flows, sustain firmer Chinese demand for overseas supplies.· Planned plant maintenance work in Japan raises prospect of drop in exports – contrasting with pick-up in shipments to Singapore in recent weeks.· South Korea’s March base oils exports stay firm even as they fall from February.· South Korea’s Q1 exports rise to highest in more than a year – but regional prices relative to diesel still rise in Q1 2023..· Rising supply and firm prices suggest demand growth outpaced supply.· Firm base oils prices sustain incentive for South Korean refiners to maintain higher output and exports.· Trend would likely coincide with weaker demand compared with late Q1 2023.· Large volume of South Korea’s surplus supplies move westwards to Mideast Gulf and Africa in Q1 2023.· Rise in shipments to those markets contrasts with large arbitrage shipments to Americas in 2H 2022.· Northeast Asia’s arbitrage shipments in 2H 2022 had bigger impact on US suppliers.· Arbitrage shipments in Q1 2023 have impact on European and Mideast Gulf suppliers, as well as US.· South Korea’s heavy-grade shipments to Latin America stay competitive even as large volumes move to Mideast Gulf.· Large flows to different markets suggest heavy-grade supply remained plentiful.· Asia’s February base oils supply falls to four-month low even as exports rise to 15-month high and demand to four-month high.· Trend cuts surplus of supply over demand to second-lowest in eleven months..· Disparity leaves Asia’s refiners with lower stocks ahead of plant maintenance in Q2 2023.· Asia refiners’ lower stocks give them more leverage to target firm-to-higher prices.· Surge in Singapore’s March base oils exports to three-year high highlights island-state’s large production capacity that went unused in recent years..· Singapore's rising March supply simultaneously covers firm demand in southeast Asia and China.· Indonesia’s rising imports from Singapore and falling shipments from South Korea point to rising competition between the two key suppliers for the key southeast Asian market.· China’s rising base oils exports to Singapore point to ongoing surplus of domestic supplies even as demand recovers.· China’s base oils exports show signs of moving to growing number of markets, including more distant outlets.· Rise in Chinese exports likely to increase as domestic refiners raise output closer to more typical levels. .Asia base oils - week of April 24: Demand outlook
· India’s retail diesel premium to discounted crude oil stays high, incentivizing refiners to maintain high run-rates.· China’s diesel premium to crude holds firm, even firmer vs discounted crude.· China’s diesel demand likely to get seasonal boost amid pick-up in agricultural, construction activity.· Plant maintenance work throughout Asia-Pacific in Q2 2023 likely to impact trade flows, sustain firmer Chinese demand for overseas supplies.· Planned plant maintenance work in Japan raises prospect of drop in exports – contrasting with pick-up in shipments to Singapore in recent weeks.· South Korea’s March base oils exports stay firm even as they fall from February.· South Korea’s Q1 exports rise to highest in more than a year – but regional prices relative to diesel still rise in Q1 2023..· Rising supply and firm prices suggest demand growth outpaced supply.· Firm base oils prices sustain incentive for South Korean refiners to maintain higher output and exports.· Trend would likely coincide with weaker demand compared with late Q1 2023.· Large volume of South Korea’s surplus supplies move westwards to Mideast Gulf and Africa in Q1 2023.· Rise in shipments to those markets contrasts with large arbitrage shipments to Americas in 2H 2022.· Northeast Asia’s arbitrage shipments in 2H 2022 had bigger impact on US suppliers.· Arbitrage shipments in Q1 2023 have impact on European and Mideast Gulf suppliers, as well as US.· South Korea’s heavy-grade shipments to Latin America stay competitive even as large volumes move to Mideast Gulf.· Large flows to different markets suggest heavy-grade supply remained plentiful.· Asia’s February base oils supply falls to four-month low even as exports rise to 15-month high and demand to four-month high.· Trend cuts surplus of supply over demand to second-lowest in eleven months..· Disparity leaves Asia’s refiners with lower stocks ahead of plant maintenance in Q2 2023.· Asia refiners’ lower stocks give them more leverage to target firm-to-higher prices.· Surge in Singapore’s March base oils exports to three-year high highlights island-state’s large production capacity that went unused in recent years..· Singapore's rising March supply simultaneously covers firm demand in southeast Asia and China.· Indonesia’s rising imports from Singapore and falling shipments from South Korea point to rising competition between the two key suppliers for the key southeast Asian market.· China’s rising base oils exports to Singapore point to ongoing surplus of domestic supplies even as demand recovers.· China’s base oils exports show signs of moving to growing number of markets, including more distant outlets.· Rise in Chinese exports likely to increase as domestic refiners raise output closer to more typical levels. .Asia base oils - week of April 24: Demand outlook
