· Asia’s base oils supply likely to remain balanced to tight, especially for heavy grades.· Asia’s base oils premium to gasoil in March 2024 starts to lag year-earlier levels, when rising premium coincided with rising supply.· Base oils premiums that continued to lag year-earlier levels could boost prospect of lower supply than year-earlier levels.· Arbitrage to move Asia Group II supplies to Europe or Americas stays hard to work.· Less feasible arbitrage points to still balanced-to-tight supplies in Asia-Pacific region.· Asia’s Group I SN 500 premium to SN 150 increases to widest since mid-2022.· Asia’s Group II N500 prices revert to premium to Group I SN 500 for first time in close to four months.· Trend points to tighter supply of heavy neutrals and moves to use more Group II supplies in place of Group I.· Slowdown in Taiwan’s Group II base oils exports to China extends into March 2024.· Singapore sees ongoing pause in imports from Japan and China in early March 2024.· Slowdown leaves island-state more reliant on regions outside Asia to cover Group I requirements.· Singapore likely to face slowdown in Group I shipments from Saudi Arabia amid signs that cargoes are moving via western Africa rather than Red Sea..· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports fall in early March 2024 to lowest since beginning of 2024..· Singapore’s fall in shipments to China in early March 2024 contrasts with surge in exports to the country in March 2023.· Lower exports reduces likelihood of repeat of supply-build in China in first few months of 2023..· China’s February paraffinic base oils output holds firm even as it edges lower..· Output could face further slowdown in March 2024 because of maintenance work affecting several plants in China.· Prospect of lower output in March 2024 would coincide with seasonal rise in China’s lube demand.· China’s blenders showed signs of replenishing stocks cautiously ahead of spring oil-change season.· Prospect of plant maintenance in China over coming weeks shows little sign of triggering any additional pick-up in demand. .· Thailand’s January base oils output falls to fourteen-month low..· Lower output and firm Group I demand in Thailand’s domestic market adds to Group I supply tightness in Asia in Q1 2024..· Thailand’s lower output slashes country's supply surplus in Jan 2024..· Shrinking surplus raises prospect of more limited supplies for export through rest of Q1 2024..· Indonesia’s Group III base oils exports rebound to five-month high in Jan 2024..· Exports likely to fall back to more typical levels in Feb 2024, mirroring similar trend in 2023, when logistical delays cut volumes one month before boosting them the next month.· Any exports from Indonesia to Europe face around two-weeks’ longer journey time because of shipment via southern Africa.· Longer shipment times from Asia to Europe could complicate plans to cover supply commitments in Europe during planned plant shutdowns in Asia in Q1 2024.· Slowdown in exports from Saudi Arabia show signs of extending into March 2024.· Slowdown could prompt Indian buyers to eye alternative supplies from other markets..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of March 11.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of March 11.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of March 11.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of March 11
· Asia’s base oils supply likely to remain balanced to tight, especially for heavy grades.· Asia’s base oils premium to gasoil in March 2024 starts to lag year-earlier levels, when rising premium coincided with rising supply.· Base oils premiums that continued to lag year-earlier levels could boost prospect of lower supply than year-earlier levels.· Arbitrage to move Asia Group II supplies to Europe or Americas stays hard to work.· Less feasible arbitrage points to still balanced-to-tight supplies in Asia-Pacific region.· Asia’s Group I SN 500 premium to SN 150 increases to widest since mid-2022.· Asia’s Group II N500 prices revert to premium to Group I SN 500 for first time in close to four months.· Trend points to tighter supply of heavy neutrals and moves to use more Group II supplies in place of Group I.· Slowdown in Taiwan’s Group II base oils exports to China extends into March 2024.· Singapore sees ongoing pause in imports from Japan and China in early March 2024.· Slowdown leaves island-state more reliant on regions outside Asia to cover Group I requirements.· Singapore likely to face slowdown in Group I shipments from Saudi Arabia amid signs that cargoes are moving via western Africa rather than Red Sea..· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports fall in early March 2024 to lowest since beginning of 2024..· Singapore’s fall in shipments to China in early March 2024 contrasts with surge in exports to the country in March 2023.· Lower exports reduces likelihood of repeat of supply-build in China in first few months of 2023..· China’s February paraffinic base oils output holds firm even as it edges lower..· Output could face further slowdown in March 2024 because of maintenance work affecting several plants in China.· Prospect of lower output in March 2024 would coincide with seasonal rise in China’s lube demand.· China’s blenders showed signs of replenishing stocks cautiously ahead of spring oil-change season.· Prospect of plant maintenance in China over coming weeks shows little sign of triggering any additional pick-up in demand. .· Thailand’s January base oils output falls to fourteen-month low..· Lower output and firm Group I demand in Thailand’s domestic market adds to Group I supply tightness in Asia in Q1 2024..· Thailand’s lower output slashes country's supply surplus in Jan 2024..· Shrinking surplus raises prospect of more limited supplies for export through rest of Q1 2024..· Indonesia’s Group III base oils exports rebound to five-month high in Jan 2024..· Exports likely to fall back to more typical levels in Feb 2024, mirroring similar trend in 2023, when logistical delays cut volumes one month before boosting them the next month.· Any exports from Indonesia to Europe face around two-weeks’ longer journey time because of shipment via southern Africa.· Longer shipment times from Asia to Europe could complicate plans to cover supply commitments in Europe during planned plant shutdowns in Asia in Q1 2024.· Slowdown in exports from Saudi Arabia show signs of extending into March 2024.· Slowdown could prompt Indian buyers to eye alternative supplies from other markets..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of March 11.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of March 11.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of March 11.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of March 11
