· US Group II base oils prices hold firm vs VGO prices..· Firm base oils margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain high output.· Supply set to get further boost following expected completion of plant-maintenance in H1 Nov 2025.· Quieter-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season already leaves market with larger-than-expected stocks built up in preparation for weather-related disruptions..· Ongoing shipment of large cargoes to markets like India and Pakistan could help to remove some of those stocks, leaving market more balanced. · Any extension of recent disruption to shipments to Mexico could force suppliers to target other overseas markets instead.· US Group II light-grade export price-discount to domestic prices widens in H2 Oct 2025..· Widening export-price discount points growing pressure from surplus supply.· Even so, US Group II light-grade export price remains high relative prices in markets like India, especially compared with heavy-grade prices..· Supply in US and Europe could get boost from any slowdown in shipments to Singapore.· Singapore’s imports from US and Europe combined rise in Q3 2025 to highest level in more than four years..· Rise in imports adds to higher-than-usual shipments from US and Europe to Singapore over past year.· Rise in imports from Europe and US is unusual, with shipments accounting for unusually large share of Singapore’s total imports this year..· Timing of US and Europe’s rising share of Singapore’s imports suggests the supplies are linked to start-up of new unit in the island-state.· Recent start-up of new unit in Singapore and expected rise in domestic output duly likely to have larger impact on shipments from US and Europe than on imports from other markets.· Any subsequent slowdown in shipments to Singapore would leave more of those supplies in US and Europe..· Europe’s base oils supply shows signs of increasingly ready availability of all grades.· Europe’s Group I base oils supply shows mixed signals.· Firmer Group I export prices relative to prices in markets like Middle East and Asia make arbitrage less feasible, pointing to easing pressure from surplus supply..· Europe’s increasingly weak Group I domestic base oils prices versus export prices instead point to slack demand and ready availability of supply..· Either way, Europe’s firm Group I export prices boost incentive for buyers in markets like West Africa to line up supplies from other sources instead.· Spot shipments to Nigeria in recent weeks include cargoes from US, Egypt and Argentina, reflecting that dynamic..· Ongoing slowdown in Europe’s base oils shipments to South Africa could impact both Group I and Group II base oils.· Europe’s base oils exports to South Africa fall in Jan-Aug 2025 from year-earlier levels..· Dip in shipments contrasts with rise in exports from US to South Africa.· Any extension of that trend could add to pressure on Europe's Group II supplies amid expected slowdown in flows to southeast Asia in coming months..· Europe’s Group II base oils prices maintain steep premium to prices in US and Asia, sustaining attraction of moving more shipments to the region.· Europe’s imports from key sources of Group II base oils revert to more typical levels in Aug 2025 amid pick-up in flows from US..· Imports in Oct 2025 set to get further boost from arrival of arbitrage shipment from Taiwan earlier this month..Singapore September base oils exports rise.Europe's August base oils exports to Africa fall.Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 27 October
