· Lower diesel premium to crude and firm base oils premium to diesel incentivizes refiners to boost or maintain higher base oils output.· Size of US surplus base oils supply likely to have shrunk in Q2 2023 amid plant maintenance work, lower prices and wave of exports.· Swathe of surplus US exports extend into Q2 2023, cushioning impact of plant maintenance work in Europe and Asia..· US refiners’ need to maintain larger-than-usual export volumes depends on domestic demand, which faces seasonal slowdown in Q3 2023.· Americas’ base oils supply from Asia-Pacific likely to stay lower over coming months as more competitive US prices make arbitrage less feasible.· Europe’s base oils supply stays lower amid plant maintenance work, lower imports from US, lack of Russian supplies.· Any extension of Europe’s Group I plant maintenance work could leave supply tighter than expected.· Ready availability of Group II supplies in other regions likely to be sufficient to cover any shortfall – but with time-lag as shipments move to Europe from those other regions.· Markets that typically cover requirements with supplies from Europe, like Nigeria, likely to attract more regular shipments from other sources like US.· Surge in Group III shipments from Spain in first four months of 2023 more than cover for slowdown in shipments in May, when scheduled plant maintenance work began.· Resumption of base oils production in Turkey from end-Q1 2023 precedes plant maintenance in Russia and Mediterranean market in Q2 2023, easing any supply tightness..Americas/EMEA base oils – week of June 12: Demand outlook.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories
· Lower diesel premium to crude and firm base oils premium to diesel incentivizes refiners to boost or maintain higher base oils output.· Size of US surplus base oils supply likely to have shrunk in Q2 2023 amid plant maintenance work, lower prices and wave of exports.· Swathe of surplus US exports extend into Q2 2023, cushioning impact of plant maintenance work in Europe and Asia..· US refiners’ need to maintain larger-than-usual export volumes depends on domestic demand, which faces seasonal slowdown in Q3 2023.· Americas’ base oils supply from Asia-Pacific likely to stay lower over coming months as more competitive US prices make arbitrage less feasible.· Europe’s base oils supply stays lower amid plant maintenance work, lower imports from US, lack of Russian supplies.· Any extension of Europe’s Group I plant maintenance work could leave supply tighter than expected.· Ready availability of Group II supplies in other regions likely to be sufficient to cover any shortfall – but with time-lag as shipments move to Europe from those other regions.· Markets that typically cover requirements with supplies from Europe, like Nigeria, likely to attract more regular shipments from other sources like US.· Surge in Group III shipments from Spain in first four months of 2023 more than cover for slowdown in shipments in May, when scheduled plant maintenance work began.· Resumption of base oils production in Turkey from end-Q1 2023 precedes plant maintenance in Russia and Mediterranean market in Q2 2023, easing any supply tightness..Americas/EMEA base oils – week of June 12: Demand outlook.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories
