· South Korea Group III refiners see Q1 base oils profit falls from Q4 2022; Group II refiners see Q1 profit rise from Q4.· Asia Group II producers’ firm profit partly reflects strength of Group II light-grade margins.· Narrow Group II light-grade discount to heavy grades reflects more the strength of light grades than weakness of heavy grades.· Asia Group I base oils prices outperform Group II base oils in Q1 2023.· Regional Group I base oils producers’ strong Q1 earnings vs Group II producers reflect that dynamic.· Group I base oils prices less likely to outperform in Q2 as narrower discount to Group II incentivizes blenders to consume more Group II base oils.· Asia Group II base oil price premium to Group I prices continues to widen in Q2 2023.· Asia Group II light-grade prices extend premium to Group I to widest in months.· Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to Group I heavy neutrals at widest in months, but narrower than Group II light-grade premium to Group I.· Widening premium could incentivize buyers to use more Group I base oils.· Asia Group I heavy-neutrals premium to light grades stays wide.· Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to light grades stays narrow – repeating trend in Q1 2023.· India’s consistently steep Group III 4cst premium to Group II light grades points to firm demand and limited leverage to switch to alternative supplies.· India’s demand for Group III 8cst could get a boost after imported prices in April fall to discount to Group II heavy grades for first time this year.· Europe Group I price discount to Group II prices stays narrower than usual, incentivizing blenders to use more Group II.· Europe’s Group I domestic price premium to export prices stays wider, suggesting tighter supply, stronger regional demand, and weaker overseas demand.· Trend sustainable so long as Europe supply is and stays tight, and so long as regional demand is and stays firm.· Europe’s premium of un/semi-approved Group III base oils to Group II narrows sharply over last two months.· Extension of trend could boost attraction of using more Group III.· Reliability of supply could be key factor determining any such move.· Europe’s Group III 8cst premium to Group II heavy grades narrows further, still wider than Q2-Q3 2022 levels.· US Group II heavy grades maintain steep premium to light grades, contrasting with narrower premium in Europe and even narrower premium in Asia..Global base oils - week of May 15: Price outlook - margins.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
· South Korea Group III refiners see Q1 base oils profit falls from Q4 2022; Group II refiners see Q1 profit rise from Q4.· Asia Group II producers’ firm profit partly reflects strength of Group II light-grade margins.· Narrow Group II light-grade discount to heavy grades reflects more the strength of light grades than weakness of heavy grades.· Asia Group I base oils prices outperform Group II base oils in Q1 2023.· Regional Group I base oils producers’ strong Q1 earnings vs Group II producers reflect that dynamic.· Group I base oils prices less likely to outperform in Q2 as narrower discount to Group II incentivizes blenders to consume more Group II base oils.· Asia Group II base oil price premium to Group I prices continues to widen in Q2 2023.· Asia Group II light-grade prices extend premium to Group I to widest in months.· Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to Group I heavy neutrals at widest in months, but narrower than Group II light-grade premium to Group I.· Widening premium could incentivize buyers to use more Group I base oils.· Asia Group I heavy-neutrals premium to light grades stays wide.· Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to light grades stays narrow – repeating trend in Q1 2023.· India’s consistently steep Group III 4cst premium to Group II light grades points to firm demand and limited leverage to switch to alternative supplies.· India’s demand for Group III 8cst could get a boost after imported prices in April fall to discount to Group II heavy grades for first time this year.· Europe Group I price discount to Group II prices stays narrower than usual, incentivizing blenders to use more Group II.· Europe’s Group I domestic price premium to export prices stays wider, suggesting tighter supply, stronger regional demand, and weaker overseas demand.· Trend sustainable so long as Europe supply is and stays tight, and so long as regional demand is and stays firm.· Europe’s premium of un/semi-approved Group III base oils to Group II narrows sharply over last two months.· Extension of trend could boost attraction of using more Group III.· Reliability of supply could be key factor determining any such move.· Europe’s Group III 8cst premium to Group II heavy grades narrows further, still wider than Q2-Q3 2022 levels.· US Group II heavy grades maintain steep premium to light grades, contrasting with narrower premium in Europe and even narrower premium in Asia..Global base oils - week of May 15: Price outlook - margins.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
