· Europe Group II premium to US prices holds at widest level in several months for light and heavy grades.· Wider premium boosts attraction of moving more US shipments to Europe, or to markets that Europe supplies with Group II base oils.· Asia Group II discount to European prices holds at widest level in more than three months.· Wider discount makes arbitrage more feasible to Europe/Mideast Gulf/Africa.· Asia producers likely to continue to eye arbitrage opportunities even as plant maintenance work cuts regional supply in Q2 2023.· Lower regional demand counters drop in supply, sustaining need to tap arbitrage outlets.· Asia Group I discount to European prices widens to widest since October 2022.· Wider discount boosts attraction of moving Asia cargoes to Mideast Gulf/Europe.· Wider discount complicates removal of any surplus European cargoes from the region.· Price dynamic is sustainable so long as European supply is tight.· Otherwise, price dynamic speeds up supply-build in Europe.· Arbitrage to move Asia Group II light grades to US stays shut.· Asia Group II heavy-grade discount to US prices stays wide, but at narrowest in around a year. Arbitrage is less attractive than before.· Asia Group I bright stock discount to US prices stays wide – facilitates arbitrage.· Size of bright stock shipments tends to be relatively small compared with Group II base oils, making flexibag shipments more likely.· Asia refiners, especially of Group I base oils, see Q1 profit outperform US counterparts amid firmer demand, more muted downward price pressure.· Asia Group I bright stock discount to domestic Chinese prices stays wider than in March-April, narrower than in Aug 2022-Jan 2023.· Bright stock discount makes arbitrage shipments hard to work unless Asia prices fall further or domestic Chinese prices rise.· Asia Group II light-grade discount to domestic Chinese prices narrows further, making arbitrage even less feasible.· Closed arbitrage boosts attraction of moving Asia cargoes to other markets.· Closed arbitrage suggests base oils supply in China is sufficient or demand is relatively weak..Global base oils - week of May 15: Price outlook - margins.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
· Europe Group II premium to US prices holds at widest level in several months for light and heavy grades.· Wider premium boosts attraction of moving more US shipments to Europe, or to markets that Europe supplies with Group II base oils.· Asia Group II discount to European prices holds at widest level in more than three months.· Wider discount makes arbitrage more feasible to Europe/Mideast Gulf/Africa.· Asia producers likely to continue to eye arbitrage opportunities even as plant maintenance work cuts regional supply in Q2 2023.· Lower regional demand counters drop in supply, sustaining need to tap arbitrage outlets.· Asia Group I discount to European prices widens to widest since October 2022.· Wider discount boosts attraction of moving Asia cargoes to Mideast Gulf/Europe.· Wider discount complicates removal of any surplus European cargoes from the region.· Price dynamic is sustainable so long as European supply is tight.· Otherwise, price dynamic speeds up supply-build in Europe.· Arbitrage to move Asia Group II light grades to US stays shut.· Asia Group II heavy-grade discount to US prices stays wide, but at narrowest in around a year. Arbitrage is less attractive than before.· Asia Group I bright stock discount to US prices stays wide – facilitates arbitrage.· Size of bright stock shipments tends to be relatively small compared with Group II base oils, making flexibag shipments more likely.· Asia refiners, especially of Group I base oils, see Q1 profit outperform US counterparts amid firmer demand, more muted downward price pressure.· Asia Group I bright stock discount to domestic Chinese prices stays wider than in March-April, narrower than in Aug 2022-Jan 2023.· Bright stock discount makes arbitrage shipments hard to work unless Asia prices fall further or domestic Chinese prices rise.· Asia Group II light-grade discount to domestic Chinese prices narrows further, making arbitrage even less feasible.· Closed arbitrage boosts attraction of moving Asia cargoes to other markets.· Closed arbitrage suggests base oils supply in China is sufficient or demand is relatively weak..Global base oils - week of May 15: Price outlook - margins.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
