· Global base oils prices recover versus feedstock/competing fuel prices after crude prices fall.· Firmer base oils price-differentials curb pressure on refiners to adjust output in response to squeezed margins.· Firmer margins, and easing pressure to adjust output, coincide with prospect of easing supply-demand fundamentals in coming weeks.· Firm margins, steady output and weaker fundamentals could trigger faster pick-up in surplus supply.· FOB Asia Group I/II base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil partially recovers..· FOB Asia Group II price-premium remains well below recent highs in April-May 2025.· Lower price-premium coincides with signs of improving supply fundamentals.· Group II heavy-grade premium remains high even if well below those recent highs.· Higher Group II light-grade premium to Singapore gasoil curbs pressure on refiners to make immediate adjustments to output, especially if premium extends recovery.· Group II light-grade price-premium is still relatively low even after recovery at end-June 2025. .· China’s Group II N500 price premium to Shandong diesel price rebounds to highest in more than a month..· China’s Group II N150 premium to diesel stays close to lowest in more than three months.· Diverging price premiums follow sustained outperformance of Group II N150 versus N500 over last four months.· Lower N150 premium could incentivize refiners to boost diesel output..· CFR India Group II N70 price-premium to Singapore gasoil recovers after sharp slide..· Higher price-premium curbs pressure on refiners to target higher outright prices at a time of year when demand usually sees seasonal slowdown.· Higher price-premium makes arbitrage more feasible, boosts incentive for refiners to maintain steady output of very-light grade base oils..· Europe’s Group II heavy-grade price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) rises to highest since Q1 2023..· Rising N500 price-premium outpaces N150 premium that remains firm but below recent high in May 2025.· Strength of Group II heavy-grade price premium incentivizes refiners to maximise output of the grade, points to increasingly firm fundamentals for the grade..· US Group II export price-premium to VGO recovers, with light-grade premium rising close to highest since Oct 2024, and similar to year-earlier levels..· Excluding slump in price margins in mid-June 2025 after surge in crude prices, Group II export price-premium holds in narrow range throughout most of Q2 2025.· Narrow range contrasts with surge in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q2 2024, with premium extending gains through Q3 2024.· Export price-premium to VGO would need to break out of narrow range to repeat that trend this year.· Any such break-out would likely need increasingly firm supply-demand fundamentals to support such a scenario.· Supply-demand fundamentals are instead more likely to face downward pressure in coming months, notwithstanding any unexpected supply disruptions..Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
