Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 29 April

·        Global base oil prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, ICIS data shows.

·        Weaker diesel premium to crude could boost attraction of base oils production even with relatively-lower base oils premium.

·        FOB NE Asia Group II base oil premium to Singapore gasoil holds at highest in months, with N500 at highest since June 2023.

·        Firm Group II premiums incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.

·        FOB Asia Group I heavy-grade base oils premiums to Singapore gasoil hold close to highest since Q2 2023.

·        Firm Group I premium should incentivize rise in production; tight capacity could curb any such moves.

·        Domestic China Group II light-grade base oil premium to Shandong diesel holds steady for past month at levels that remain well below year-earlier levels.

·        Lower premium could curb prospect of large build-up of domestic supplies in China.

·        CFR India Group II N70 premium to Asia gasoil edges down from last week, holds close to highest since Nov 2023.

·        Higher premium boosts incentive for regional refiners to produce more very-light grades for base oils market.

·        Europe Group I export prices extend strong rebound vs VGO since early March 2024.

·        Europe Group I export brightstock premium to VGO rises to highest since Dec 2023, outpaces rise in SN 150 and SN 500 premium.

·        Europe Group I domestic prices rise vs VGO since early March 2024 but much less strongly than export prices.

·        Europe Group I domestic brightstock premium to VGO rises less than SN 150 and SN 500.

·        Europe Group II N150 premium to VGO rises from lowest in more than six months, stays low vs past year.

·        US Group II export prices hold close to five-month high vs heating oil; heavy-grade premium to heating oil stays unusually low even after recent rebound.

·        US Group II export prices similarly extend gains vs VGO, with heavy-grade premium still unusually low.

·        US Group II domestic N100/120 premium to VGO extends gradual recovery; N600 premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q1 2022.

·        US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO extends rebound to highest this year.

·        US Group III 4cSt premium to VGO edges up, holds close to lowest since Q1 2021.