· Global base oils prices edge lower vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, stay well below recent highs in Q2 2025.· Lower base oils margins coincide with time of year when supply-demand fundamentals typically weaken.· Even at lower levels, base oils margins hold at levels that curb incentive for refiners to adjust output.· Relatively firm margins could point to stronger-than-usual fundamentals for the time of year.· Relatively firm margins, and any subsequent lack of adjustments to output, could alternatively trigger larger rise in surplus supplies..· FOB Asia base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil hold steadier, well below recent highs in Q2 2025..· FOB Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to gasoil holds at elevated level, well above year-earlier levels.· FOB Asia Group II light-grade premium to gasoil steadies well below year-earlier levels, when premium extended rise through most of Q3 2024.· FOB Asia Group II light-grade premium to gasoil holds at similar levels to July 2023, when premium extended slide in Q3 2023 to steep discount to gasoil.· Any sign of light-grade margins holding close to current levels could curb urgency for refiners to prioritise other products like diesel instead..· China’s domestic Group II N150 price-premium to Shandong diesel prices stays lower, closer to levels in Q1 2025..· Lack of recovery in base oils margins points to weaker supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to trim run-rates, or to line up or extend plant-maintenance work..· CFR India Group II N70 price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds steadier..· N70 premium stays well below recent highs in April-May 2025, but well above recent lows in June 2025.· N70 premium holds at level that facilitates arbitrage shipments, points to ongoing buying interest..· Europe’s domestic Group I base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) stays below recent highs in Q2 2025, increasingly lags year-earlier levels for light- and heavy-neutrals..· Domestic Group I base oils price-premium to VGO remains at levels that curb pressure on refiners to adjust output.· Domestic Group I price premium weakens at time of year when supply-demand fundamentals typically soften.· Domestic Group I price-premium to VGO falls more steeply than Group I export prices and domestic Group II/III base oils.· Steeper fall in Group I margins points to weaker supply-demands for domestic supplies compared with other base oils grades..· US Group II export light-grade price-premium to VGO holds in relatively narrow range that it has mostly stayed in since early-Q2 2025..· Steady price-premium increasingly lags surge in base oils margins in Q3 2024.· More range-bound price-premium is more similar to, but at higher level than in H1 2023.· Range-bound Group II light-grade price-premium in H1 2023 coincided with higher heating oil crack than in 2025.· Dynamic suggests current US Group II export light-grade price-premium to VGO remains at level that curbs incentive for refiners to adjust output of the product..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July
