· India’s imported Group II light-grade base oil price premium to FOB NE Asia prices extends rise in August to highest since start of Q2 2024..· Wider premium boosts feasibility of moving more supplies to India.· India’s imports of Group II light-grade base oils stays lower in July 2024 even as arbitrage turns more feasible.· Lower imports mostly reflect dip in Group II shipments from South Korea, including light grades..· India’s lower Group II imports from South Korea in June-July 2024 contrast with firm shipments of Group III base oils from the northeast Asian country.· India's lower Group II imports from South Korea follow slump in the northeast Asian country’s exports in June 2024, with the slowdown extending into July 2024..· South Korea’s exports stay lower in June-July 2024 even as the country’s base oils output holds firm in May-June 2024.· Disconnect between output and exports points to moves to build stocks.· Any moves to build stocks would precede and help to cover requirements during scheduled Group II plant maintenance in South Korea starting in Sept 2024.· India’s lower Group II imports from South Korea contrast with revival in shipments from Saudi Arabia in July 2024..· Pick-up in flows from Saudi Arabia in July 2024 cushions impact of drop in supplies from South Korea and from US.· Pick-up in flows from Saudi Arabia shows signs of extending into August 2024.· Dynamic would allow for further build-up of Group II inventories in South Korea ahead of plant shutdown.· Shutdown of South Korea’s Group II plant is set to start from around mid-Sept 2024, around the same time as the peak period of the Atlantic hurricane season typically ends.· Prospect of ongoing dip in Group II shipments from South Korea could also provide opportunity for any surplus volumes from US to move to outlets like India after the peak hurricane period.· Any such moves would help maintain more balanced supply fundamentals.· Any such moves would curb supply-build in India in Q3 2024, support stock-build in South Korea ahead of maintenance work and raise possibility of an outlet for surplus US supplies after the peak hurricane period..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 26 Aug
· India’s imported Group II light-grade base oil price premium to FOB NE Asia prices extends rise in August to highest since start of Q2 2024..· Wider premium boosts feasibility of moving more supplies to India.· India’s imports of Group II light-grade base oils stays lower in July 2024 even as arbitrage turns more feasible.· Lower imports mostly reflect dip in Group II shipments from South Korea, including light grades..· India’s lower Group II imports from South Korea in June-July 2024 contrast with firm shipments of Group III base oils from the northeast Asian country.· India's lower Group II imports from South Korea follow slump in the northeast Asian country’s exports in June 2024, with the slowdown extending into July 2024..· South Korea’s exports stay lower in June-July 2024 even as the country’s base oils output holds firm in May-June 2024.· Disconnect between output and exports points to moves to build stocks.· Any moves to build stocks would precede and help to cover requirements during scheduled Group II plant maintenance in South Korea starting in Sept 2024.· India’s lower Group II imports from South Korea contrast with revival in shipments from Saudi Arabia in July 2024..· Pick-up in flows from Saudi Arabia in July 2024 cushions impact of drop in supplies from South Korea and from US.· Pick-up in flows from Saudi Arabia shows signs of extending into August 2024.· Dynamic would allow for further build-up of Group II inventories in South Korea ahead of plant shutdown.· Shutdown of South Korea’s Group II plant is set to start from around mid-Sept 2024, around the same time as the peak period of the Atlantic hurricane season typically ends.· Prospect of ongoing dip in Group II shipments from South Korea could also provide opportunity for any surplus volumes from US to move to outlets like India after the peak hurricane period.· Any such moves would help maintain more balanced supply fundamentals.· Any such moves would curb supply-build in India in Q3 2024, support stock-build in South Korea ahead of maintenance work and raise possibility of an outlet for surplus US supplies after the peak hurricane period..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 26 Aug
