· Asia’s Group II prices maintain steep discount to US prices in Q3 2024, keeping arbitrage from US shut..· Europe’s Group II prices maintain premium to US prices, keeping more feasible the arbitrage from US to Europe than from Europe to US..· Wave of base oils shipments move from US to Singapore in Q1 2024, when arbitrage to Asia was more feasible.· Wave of shipments from US continues to move to Singapore through Q2 2024, when arbitrage to Asia was shut..· US shipments continue to reach Singapore through Q3 2024..· Continuation of shipments to Singapore point to factors independent of closed arbitrage to Asia.· Shipments move to Asia at a time when arbitrage turns more feasible to move cargoes from Asia to the Americas.· More feasible arbitrage from Asia to Americas reflects weaker prices, seasonal slowdown in demand and pick-up in surplus supply in Asia in Q3 2024.· Shipments from US to Asia add to supply in Asia in Q3 2024 at same time as arbitrage shipments from Asia seek to trim surplus supply..· Wave of base oils shipments move from Europe to US from end-2023 through H1 2024..· Shipments from Europe to US point to factors independent of closed arbitrage to US.· Base oil shipments move from Europe to US at a time when arbitrage turns more feasible to move more cargoes from US to regular outlets like Europe and less regular markets like India.· More feasible arbitrage from US to other markets in Q1 2024 reflects weaker prices, seasonal slowdown in demand and pick-up in surplus supply in US at that time.· Shipments from Europe to US instead add to supply in US and trim supply in Europe in Q1 2024, at a time when plant maintenance work cut Europe's supply availability.· Base oils shipments continue to move from Europe to US through Q2 2024, when Europe faced seasonal pick-up in regional demand..· Shipments from US to Singapore and from Europe to US point to factors independent of arbitrage opportunities.· The shipments still influence arbitrage opportunities by impacting supply dynamics in the source and destination markets.· The impact is all the greater when the shipments add volumes to markets seeking to clear supplies or remove volumes from markets seeking additional supplies..US’ June base oils exports to Europe rise.Europe’s June Grp I exports extend fall.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Sept.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 Sept
· Asia’s Group II prices maintain steep discount to US prices in Q3 2024, keeping arbitrage from US shut..· Europe’s Group II prices maintain premium to US prices, keeping more feasible the arbitrage from US to Europe than from Europe to US..· Wave of base oils shipments move from US to Singapore in Q1 2024, when arbitrage to Asia was more feasible.· Wave of shipments from US continues to move to Singapore through Q2 2024, when arbitrage to Asia was shut..· US shipments continue to reach Singapore through Q3 2024..· Continuation of shipments to Singapore point to factors independent of closed arbitrage to Asia.· Shipments move to Asia at a time when arbitrage turns more feasible to move cargoes from Asia to the Americas.· More feasible arbitrage from Asia to Americas reflects weaker prices, seasonal slowdown in demand and pick-up in surplus supply in Asia in Q3 2024.· Shipments from US to Asia add to supply in Asia in Q3 2024 at same time as arbitrage shipments from Asia seek to trim surplus supply..· Wave of base oils shipments move from Europe to US from end-2023 through H1 2024..· Shipments from Europe to US point to factors independent of closed arbitrage to US.· Base oil shipments move from Europe to US at a time when arbitrage turns more feasible to move more cargoes from US to regular outlets like Europe and less regular markets like India.· More feasible arbitrage from US to other markets in Q1 2024 reflects weaker prices, seasonal slowdown in demand and pick-up in surplus supply in US at that time.· Shipments from Europe to US instead add to supply in US and trim supply in Europe in Q1 2024, at a time when plant maintenance work cut Europe's supply availability.· Base oils shipments continue to move from Europe to US through Q2 2024, when Europe faced seasonal pick-up in regional demand..· Shipments from US to Singapore and from Europe to US point to factors independent of arbitrage opportunities.· The shipments still influence arbitrage opportunities by impacting supply dynamics in the source and destination markets.· The impact is all the greater when the shipments add volumes to markets seeking to clear supplies or remove volumes from markets seeking additional supplies..US’ June base oils exports to Europe rise.Europe’s June Grp I exports extend fall.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Sept.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 Sept
