· India’s imported brightstock cargo price premium to FOB Asia prices holds at highest in almost a year.· China’s domestic brightstock price premium to FOB Asia prices steadies at high levels after correcting lower in April and May 2024.· Strength of brightstock prices in destination markets like India, China and southeast Asia points to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals, contrasts with recent slowdown in demand for other products like Group II base oils.· Firm supply-demand fundamentals boost attraction of securing brightstock supplies from markets outside Asia.· Increasingly firm Europe and US export brightstock prices complicate any such moves.· Limited supply from those markets leaves India and China even more reliant on dwindling number of brightstock sources in Asia.· Dynamic increases the importance of securing alternative supply options.· Firm brightstock supply-demand fundamentals increase competition between China, India and southeast Asia for any surplus brightstock supplies in the Asia-Pacific region.· CFR India Group I brightstock price premium to FOB Asia price holds at more than $100/t through June 2024, close to highest in a year..· China’s domestic Group I brightstock price premium to FOB Asia price stays unusually high even after recent correction..· China’s recent domestic price correction cuts its premium to CFR India prices to lowest since early-Feb 2024, boosting attraction of moving more supplies to India..· Singapore’s bunker fuel sales rise in May 2024 to four-month high, with average bunker fuel consumption per vessel rising to second-highest level in more than seven years..· Strength of bunker fuel demand in Singapore points to firm marine lube consumption, and for more Group I brightstock to produce more marine lubes..· Tight supply in more distant markets curbs those markets' ability to tap the firm demand in Asia.· Europe’s export brightstock price flips back to premium to region’s domestic price, while steep premium to CFR India and ex-tank Singapore prices widens further..· US’ export brightstock price premium to FOB Asia price starts to rise from end-May 2024 after trending lower since mid-2023, complicating feasibility of additional flows from that market.· India and Singapore show signs of lining up more alternative brightstock supply options than China to supplement regular sources.· India takes delivery of brightstock supplies from Indonesia in April and May 2024 for first time in more than a year.· India starts to take delivery of brightstock supplies of US origin from end-2023, with regular shipments since then.· India takes delivery of more brightstock supplies from Saudi Arabia in first five months of 2024..· Shipments help to balance out pause in imports from Thailand since end-Q1 2024..· India and Singapore’s various alternative brightstock supply sources contrast with China’s more limited number of overseas sources.· Dynamic increases importance of China’s brightstock price maintaining levels that continue to attract more arbitrage shipments from Asia..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 June.India’s May base oils imports rise
· India’s imported brightstock cargo price premium to FOB Asia prices holds at highest in almost a year.· China’s domestic brightstock price premium to FOB Asia prices steadies at high levels after correcting lower in April and May 2024.· Strength of brightstock prices in destination markets like India, China and southeast Asia points to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals, contrasts with recent slowdown in demand for other products like Group II base oils.· Firm supply-demand fundamentals boost attraction of securing brightstock supplies from markets outside Asia.· Increasingly firm Europe and US export brightstock prices complicate any such moves.· Limited supply from those markets leaves India and China even more reliant on dwindling number of brightstock sources in Asia.· Dynamic increases the importance of securing alternative supply options.· Firm brightstock supply-demand fundamentals increase competition between China, India and southeast Asia for any surplus brightstock supplies in the Asia-Pacific region.· CFR India Group I brightstock price premium to FOB Asia price holds at more than $100/t through June 2024, close to highest in a year..· China’s domestic Group I brightstock price premium to FOB Asia price stays unusually high even after recent correction..· China’s recent domestic price correction cuts its premium to CFR India prices to lowest since early-Feb 2024, boosting attraction of moving more supplies to India..· Singapore’s bunker fuel sales rise in May 2024 to four-month high, with average bunker fuel consumption per vessel rising to second-highest level in more than seven years..· Strength of bunker fuel demand in Singapore points to firm marine lube consumption, and for more Group I brightstock to produce more marine lubes..· Tight supply in more distant markets curbs those markets' ability to tap the firm demand in Asia.· Europe’s export brightstock price flips back to premium to region’s domestic price, while steep premium to CFR India and ex-tank Singapore prices widens further..· US’ export brightstock price premium to FOB Asia price starts to rise from end-May 2024 after trending lower since mid-2023, complicating feasibility of additional flows from that market.· India and Singapore show signs of lining up more alternative brightstock supply options than China to supplement regular sources.· India takes delivery of brightstock supplies from Indonesia in April and May 2024 for first time in more than a year.· India starts to take delivery of brightstock supplies of US origin from end-2023, with regular shipments since then.· India takes delivery of more brightstock supplies from Saudi Arabia in first five months of 2024..· Shipments help to balance out pause in imports from Thailand since end-Q1 2024..· India and Singapore’s various alternative brightstock supply sources contrast with China’s more limited number of overseas sources.· Dynamic increases importance of China’s brightstock price maintaining levels that continue to attract more arbitrage shipments from Asia..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 24 June.India’s May base oils imports rise