· Base oils prices hold unusually steady in US, Europe and Asia so far in 2025.· Steady base oils prices contrast with more typical fall in prices at start of the year as weak demand complicates moves to clear surplus supply.· Steady base oils prices add to signs of smaller-than-usual imbalance between supply and demand at start of 2025.· Smaller-than-usual supply-demand imbalance limits opportunity for blenders in some markets to build stocks ahead of spring oil-change season.· US/Europe export base oils price premium to vacuum gasoil shows signs of bottoming out earlier and at higher level at start of this year than in 2024..· Firmer base oils margins earlier in the year coincide with dip in US base oils exports at end-2024..· Dip in exports could reflect less feasible arbitrage and build-up of domestic supplies.· Dip in exports could instead reflect more limited availability of supplies for overseas markets..· Dip in exports contrasts with surge in US shipments to Mexico in Dec 2024 close to highest in at least a decade..· Surge in US exports to Mexico points to availability of surplus volumes.· Surge in US exports to Mexico cuts volume of shipments for other markets to five-month low..· Dip in shipments to other outlets coincides with steadier-to-narrower US export price discounts to prices in markets like Europe and India..· Steadier export price discounts point to waning pressure to adjust prices to make arbitrage more feasible.· Dip in shipments to other outlets puts pressure on buyers in markets like India to target other sources instead..· Like US and Europe prices, Asia Group II heavy-grade base oil premium to Singapore gasoil shows signs of bottoming out earlier and at higher level than in early 2024.· Firmer base oils margins earlier in the year coincide with dip in Asia’s base oils exports at end-2024..· Dip in exports coincides with unusually firm lube demand in southeast Asia and India at end-2024..· Dip in exports and firm demand at end-2024 cuts supply-overhang carried into start of 2025..· Asia’s lube demand likely get seasonal boost in coming months..· Seasonal rise in demand set to coincide with protracted round of plant maintenance in Asia in H1 2025..· Limited volume of surplus arbitrage shipments from US at end-2024 curbs opportunity for blenders in Asia to build stocks ahead of rise in demand and plant maintenance work.· Steady US export prices so far this year suggest availability of surplus arbitrage shipments likely to remain more limited.· Dynamic leaves Asia market facing seasonal pick-up in demand, combined with tighter supply in the region, and tighter supply in other markets like US..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 17 Feb.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 Feb.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 Feb.US' Dec base oils exports stay lower.Asia lube demand to revive in H1 2025
· Base oils prices hold unusually steady in US, Europe and Asia so far in 2025.· Steady base oils prices contrast with more typical fall in prices at start of the year as weak demand complicates moves to clear surplus supply.· Steady base oils prices add to signs of smaller-than-usual imbalance between supply and demand at start of 2025.· Smaller-than-usual supply-demand imbalance limits opportunity for blenders in some markets to build stocks ahead of spring oil-change season.· US/Europe export base oils price premium to vacuum gasoil shows signs of bottoming out earlier and at higher level at start of this year than in 2024..· Firmer base oils margins earlier in the year coincide with dip in US base oils exports at end-2024..· Dip in exports could reflect less feasible arbitrage and build-up of domestic supplies.· Dip in exports could instead reflect more limited availability of supplies for overseas markets..· Dip in exports contrasts with surge in US shipments to Mexico in Dec 2024 close to highest in at least a decade..· Surge in US exports to Mexico points to availability of surplus volumes.· Surge in US exports to Mexico cuts volume of shipments for other markets to five-month low..· Dip in shipments to other outlets coincides with steadier-to-narrower US export price discounts to prices in markets like Europe and India..· Steadier export price discounts point to waning pressure to adjust prices to make arbitrage more feasible.· Dip in shipments to other outlets puts pressure on buyers in markets like India to target other sources instead..· Like US and Europe prices, Asia Group II heavy-grade base oil premium to Singapore gasoil shows signs of bottoming out earlier and at higher level than in early 2024.· Firmer base oils margins earlier in the year coincide with dip in Asia’s base oils exports at end-2024..· Dip in exports coincides with unusually firm lube demand in southeast Asia and India at end-2024..· Dip in exports and firm demand at end-2024 cuts supply-overhang carried into start of 2025..· Asia’s lube demand likely get seasonal boost in coming months..· Seasonal rise in demand set to coincide with protracted round of plant maintenance in Asia in H1 2025..· Limited volume of surplus arbitrage shipments from US at end-2024 curbs opportunity for blenders in Asia to build stocks ahead of rise in demand and plant maintenance work.· Steady US export prices so far this year suggest availability of surplus arbitrage shipments likely to remain more limited.· Dynamic leaves Asia market facing seasonal pick-up in demand, combined with tighter supply in the region, and tighter supply in other markets like US..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 17 Feb.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 Feb.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 Feb.US' Dec base oils exports stay lower.Asia lube demand to revive in H1 2025
