· Widening Europe Group II price premium to US prices increases feasibility/attraction of moving more shipments to Europe.· US Group III price premium to European prices stays narrower than in Q4 2022/early 2023 – boosting attraction of moving more shipments to Europe.· Europe Group II prices maintain wide premium to Asia-Pacific prices – making feasible again arbitrage flows from Asia to Europe.· Europe Group I price premium to Asia prices continues to widen – boosting attraction of moving Asia cargoes to India/Mideast Gulf and curbing outlets for any Europe arbitrage cargoes.· Asia Group I bright stock/Group II heavy-grade price discount to US prices stays wide – sustaining attraction of tapping that arbitrage.· Asia Group I bright stock discount to domestic Chinese prices widens slightly - much wider than Feb-March levels, narrower than Q4 2022/Jan 2023 levels.· Arbitrage likely to remain hard to work.· Asia Group II light-grade/heavy-grade discount to domestic Chinese prices narrows – making arbitrage flows to China increasingly hard to work.· Less feasible arbitrage coincides with ongoing plant maintenance work in China, suggesting domestic supply remains sufficient even with capacity offline.· Less feasible arbitrage to China likely to prompt refiners to redirect supplies to other markets instead.· US Group II light-grade arbitrage to India likely to need to stay open if surplus US supply lingers or grows.· US arbitrage flows to India and less attractive Asia arbitrage to China could increase competition for India market or prompt more Asia light-grade supplies to target markets like North/West Africa. .Global base oils - week of May 8: Price outlook - margins
· Widening Europe Group II price premium to US prices increases feasibility/attraction of moving more shipments to Europe.· US Group III price premium to European prices stays narrower than in Q4 2022/early 2023 – boosting attraction of moving more shipments to Europe.· Europe Group II prices maintain wide premium to Asia-Pacific prices – making feasible again arbitrage flows from Asia to Europe.· Europe Group I price premium to Asia prices continues to widen – boosting attraction of moving Asia cargoes to India/Mideast Gulf and curbing outlets for any Europe arbitrage cargoes.· Asia Group I bright stock/Group II heavy-grade price discount to US prices stays wide – sustaining attraction of tapping that arbitrage.· Asia Group I bright stock discount to domestic Chinese prices widens slightly - much wider than Feb-March levels, narrower than Q4 2022/Jan 2023 levels.· Arbitrage likely to remain hard to work.· Asia Group II light-grade/heavy-grade discount to domestic Chinese prices narrows – making arbitrage flows to China increasingly hard to work.· Less feasible arbitrage coincides with ongoing plant maintenance work in China, suggesting domestic supply remains sufficient even with capacity offline.· Less feasible arbitrage to China likely to prompt refiners to redirect supplies to other markets instead.· US Group II light-grade arbitrage to India likely to need to stay open if surplus US supply lingers or grows.· US arbitrage flows to India and less attractive Asia arbitrage to China could increase competition for India market or prompt more Asia light-grade supplies to target markets like North/West Africa. .Global base oils - week of May 8: Price outlook - margins
