· Asia Group II values vs gasoil improve, stay negative; Europe Group II values hold firm, even if lower than 1H 2022..· High diesel price/premium to crude provides higher floor-price for light-grade base oils.· India’s retail diesel premium to regional Group II light-grade prices holds steady, lower than 2021, maintaining narrow range since August.· China’s Group II light-grade premium to diesel extends rise to highest in more than a year, incentivizing refiners to raise base oils output..· US Group II posted prices hold firm vs heating oil – down from 3Q, up from 1H 2022.· Asia Group I price discount to Europe prices stays close to narrowest since 1Q 2022, still wide.· Asia Group I discount to Europe prices makes European cargoes less competitive for arbitrage to Mideast Gulf, India.· Asia Group II discount to Europe prices close to narrowest since 1Q 2022, still much wider than usual.· Asia/Mideast Gulf Group II arbitrage to Europe stays feasible, especially Mideast Gulf supplies with shorter journey.· Asia Group II discount to US prices stays unusually wide, keeps arbitrage attractive.· Europe Group II heavy-grade prices stay at discount to US prices, complicating arbitrage.· Trend suggests Europe prices need to rise, or US prices need to fall.· Europe Group II premium to Group I narrows, still wider than usual.· Europe Group II premium to Group I likely to face pressure as low demand, growing resistance to higher prices prompt blenders to use the lower-priced product.· Asia Group II premium to Group I stays narrow, boosting attraction of Group II.· Asia’s narrow Group II premium to Group I, Europe’s wide Group II premium to Group I highlight Asia’s larger supply of Group II, Europe’s larger supply of Group I.· Domestic Chinese Group II light-grade prices extend sharp rise in 1H November as low production and imports keep supply tight.· Domestic Chinese prices move to unusual premium to domestic prices for imported supplies.· Lack of price response for imported supplies is unusual, suggests priority is to secure deals.· Domestic Chinese Group II light-grade prices move to widest premium to Asia-Pacific cargo prices in more than a year.· Domestic Chinese Group I prices move to widening premium to Asia-Pacific cargo prices.· Tighter Asia Group I supply, firmer Chinese prices likely to support regional Group I prices..Global base oils – week of Nov 14: Demand outlook
· Asia Group II values vs gasoil improve, stay negative; Europe Group II values hold firm, even if lower than 1H 2022..· High diesel price/premium to crude provides higher floor-price for light-grade base oils.· India’s retail diesel premium to regional Group II light-grade prices holds steady, lower than 2021, maintaining narrow range since August.· China’s Group II light-grade premium to diesel extends rise to highest in more than a year, incentivizing refiners to raise base oils output..· US Group II posted prices hold firm vs heating oil – down from 3Q, up from 1H 2022.· Asia Group I price discount to Europe prices stays close to narrowest since 1Q 2022, still wide.· Asia Group I discount to Europe prices makes European cargoes less competitive for arbitrage to Mideast Gulf, India.· Asia Group II discount to Europe prices close to narrowest since 1Q 2022, still much wider than usual.· Asia/Mideast Gulf Group II arbitrage to Europe stays feasible, especially Mideast Gulf supplies with shorter journey.· Asia Group II discount to US prices stays unusually wide, keeps arbitrage attractive.· Europe Group II heavy-grade prices stay at discount to US prices, complicating arbitrage.· Trend suggests Europe prices need to rise, or US prices need to fall.· Europe Group II premium to Group I narrows, still wider than usual.· Europe Group II premium to Group I likely to face pressure as low demand, growing resistance to higher prices prompt blenders to use the lower-priced product.· Asia Group II premium to Group I stays narrow, boosting attraction of Group II.· Asia’s narrow Group II premium to Group I, Europe’s wide Group II premium to Group I highlight Asia’s larger supply of Group II, Europe’s larger supply of Group I.· Domestic Chinese Group II light-grade prices extend sharp rise in 1H November as low production and imports keep supply tight.· Domestic Chinese prices move to unusual premium to domestic prices for imported supplies.· Lack of price response for imported supplies is unusual, suggests priority is to secure deals.· Domestic Chinese Group II light-grade prices move to widest premium to Asia-Pacific cargo prices in more than a year.· Domestic Chinese Group I prices move to widening premium to Asia-Pacific cargo prices.· Tighter Asia Group I supply, firmer Chinese prices likely to support regional Group I prices..Global base oils – week of Nov 14: Demand outlook
