· Crude oil prices hold close to highest in more than two months amid expectations and signs of firm summer-related fuel demand and tighter supplies.· Premium of gasoil over crude stays well above recent lows in April-May 2024, well below lows before April 2024.· Global base oils demand could ease ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in month of August.· Global demand could get support from signs of smaller base oils supply overhang at start of Q3 2024.· Global demand could start to get support in some markets from moves to lock in supplies for delivery at end-Q3 2024.· Global demand could get support from concern about weather-related supply disruptions in US.· Unusually active start to Atlantic hurricane season adds to such concerns.· Any supply disruptions would have direct repercussions on US market and indirect repercussions on markets for which US is a key supplier.· Asia’s base oils demand could start to revive in coming weeks as buyers turn focus to seasonal pick-up in demand at end-Q3 2024.· Base oil prices in China and India continue to strengthen relative to FOB Asia prices, pointing to gradual improvement in demand prospects.· Europe’s base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown in coming weeks.· Slowdown shows signs of impacting premium-grade base oils more than Group I base oils.· US base oils demand could get boost from blenders’ moves to build larger stocks as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions. · Blenders’ moves to build larger stocks could take longer than expected amid signs of firmer lube consumption in recent weeks.· Buyers in Latin America could start to eye shipments from alternative supply sources like Asia as hedge against weather-related disruption to US supplies..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 July.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 July
· Crude oil prices hold close to highest in more than two months amid expectations and signs of firm summer-related fuel demand and tighter supplies.· Premium of gasoil over crude stays well above recent lows in April-May 2024, well below lows before April 2024.· Global base oils demand could ease ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in month of August.· Global demand could get support from signs of smaller base oils supply overhang at start of Q3 2024.· Global demand could start to get support in some markets from moves to lock in supplies for delivery at end-Q3 2024.· Global demand could get support from concern about weather-related supply disruptions in US.· Unusually active start to Atlantic hurricane season adds to such concerns.· Any supply disruptions would have direct repercussions on US market and indirect repercussions on markets for which US is a key supplier.· Asia’s base oils demand could start to revive in coming weeks as buyers turn focus to seasonal pick-up in demand at end-Q3 2024.· Base oil prices in China and India continue to strengthen relative to FOB Asia prices, pointing to gradual improvement in demand prospects.· Europe’s base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown in coming weeks.· Slowdown shows signs of impacting premium-grade base oils more than Group I base oils.· US base oils demand could get boost from blenders’ moves to build larger stocks as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions. · Blenders’ moves to build larger stocks could take longer than expected amid signs of firmer lube consumption in recent weeks.· Buyers in Latin America could start to eye shipments from alternative supply sources like Asia as hedge against weather-related disruption to US supplies..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 8 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 8 July.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 July
