· Global crude oil prices hold close to highest in more than a month after sharp rebound over past week.· Crude oil prices face prospect of higher-than-usual volatility over coming days depending on developments in Middle East.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays low, holds above one-year lows reached in recent weeks.· Diesel premium holds steady as diesel prices keep pace with surge in crude prices over past week.· Base oils prices lag surge in crude prices, triggering slump in base oils margins.· Already-firm base oils margins, prospect of seasonal slowdown in demand and sufficient supply curb urgency for blenders to adjust procurement plans in response to recent crude price volatility.· Recent crude price volatility could ease downward pressure on base oils prices, removing one factor that added to buyers’ preference to procure smaller volumes to cover requirements.· Asia’s base oils demand could be steady-to-weak, with buyers seeking to cover requirements and holding off locking in any additional volumes.· China’s firm domestic prices and India’s firm imported light-grade cargo prices vs FOB Asia prices points to firm underlying buying interest in those markets.· Europe’s Group II base oils demand could face pressure amid more competitive prices for Group I and Group III base oils.· Overseas demand for Europe’s Group I base oils could stay more muted after domestic prices weaken sharply versus export prices in recent weeks.· Buyers could hold back until they are confident they face little exposure to a drop in export prices, following fall in domestic prices in H2 Sept 2024. · US base oils demand could extend slowdown as buyers focus on trimming inventories that they built up during Q3 2024.· Seasonal slowdown in demand in US and Latin America in coming weeks, and expectations of improving availability of supply, adds to buyers’ preference to hold lower stocks..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 Oct
· Global crude oil prices hold close to highest in more than a month after sharp rebound over past week.· Crude oil prices face prospect of higher-than-usual volatility over coming days depending on developments in Middle East.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays low, holds above one-year lows reached in recent weeks.· Diesel premium holds steady as diesel prices keep pace with surge in crude prices over past week.· Base oils prices lag surge in crude prices, triggering slump in base oils margins.· Already-firm base oils margins, prospect of seasonal slowdown in demand and sufficient supply curb urgency for blenders to adjust procurement plans in response to recent crude price volatility.· Recent crude price volatility could ease downward pressure on base oils prices, removing one factor that added to buyers’ preference to procure smaller volumes to cover requirements.· Asia’s base oils demand could be steady-to-weak, with buyers seeking to cover requirements and holding off locking in any additional volumes.· China’s firm domestic prices and India’s firm imported light-grade cargo prices vs FOB Asia prices points to firm underlying buying interest in those markets.· Europe’s Group II base oils demand could face pressure amid more competitive prices for Group I and Group III base oils.· Overseas demand for Europe’s Group I base oils could stay more muted after domestic prices weaken sharply versus export prices in recent weeks.· Buyers could hold back until they are confident they face little exposure to a drop in export prices, following fall in domestic prices in H2 Sept 2024. · US base oils demand could extend slowdown as buyers focus on trimming inventories that they built up during Q3 2024.· Seasonal slowdown in demand in US and Latin America in coming weeks, and expectations of improving availability of supply, adds to buyers’ preference to hold lower stocks..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 Oct