· Global crude oil prices fall close to lowest this year, with bearish news having a larger impact on prices than bullish factors such as still-elevated geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar versus other currencies.· Price weakness points to ongoing concern about prospect of crude oil supply outpacing demand.· Diesel premium to crude holds at lowest in more than a year, raising prospect of refiners trimming run-rates, adding to slowdown in crude oil demand.· Weakness of crude oil and diesel prices contrasts with still-firm base oils prices.· Dynamic boosts incentive for refiners to increase base oils output.· Dynamic cuts incentive for buyers to procure larger volumes amid expectations of sufficient supply and concern about possibility of price adjustments if supply exceeds demand.· Price discounts and posted-price cuts in the US add to such concerns against backdrop of weak demand.· Seasonal pick-up in US demand could also be more muted if distributors and blenders first seek to clear supplies built up in recent months to cover for weather-related supply disruptions.· Europe’s base oils demand could get support from typical seasonal rise in region’s lube demand in month of September from August.· More limited stock-building compared with US could add to need to replenish inventories.· Firm base oils margins, signs of healthy availability of supply and fragile lube demand could incentivize buyers to maintain strategy of procuring smaller volumes more frequently. · Asia’s high base oils margins could also deter buyers from seeking to build larger stocks.· Seasonal pick-up in demand, signs of more balanced fundamentals and closed arbitrage from other markets could support steadier buying interest..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Sept.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 Sept.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 2 Sept
· Global crude oil prices fall close to lowest this year, with bearish news having a larger impact on prices than bullish factors such as still-elevated geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar versus other currencies.· Price weakness points to ongoing concern about prospect of crude oil supply outpacing demand.· Diesel premium to crude holds at lowest in more than a year, raising prospect of refiners trimming run-rates, adding to slowdown in crude oil demand.· Weakness of crude oil and diesel prices contrasts with still-firm base oils prices.· Dynamic boosts incentive for refiners to increase base oils output.· Dynamic cuts incentive for buyers to procure larger volumes amid expectations of sufficient supply and concern about possibility of price adjustments if supply exceeds demand.· Price discounts and posted-price cuts in the US add to such concerns against backdrop of weak demand.· Seasonal pick-up in US demand could also be more muted if distributors and blenders first seek to clear supplies built up in recent months to cover for weather-related supply disruptions.· Europe’s base oils demand could get support from typical seasonal rise in region’s lube demand in month of September from August.· More limited stock-building compared with US could add to need to replenish inventories.· Firm base oils margins, signs of healthy availability of supply and fragile lube demand could incentivize buyers to maintain strategy of procuring smaller volumes more frequently. · Asia’s high base oils margins could also deter buyers from seeking to build larger stocks.· Seasonal pick-up in demand, signs of more balanced fundamentals and closed arbitrage from other markets could support steadier buying interest..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Sept.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 Sept.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 2 Sept
