· Global crude oil prices hold in lower range, with more bearish supply-demand fundamentals outweighing supportive factors such as geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar versus other currencies.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays close to weakest level in more than a year.· Global base oils demand could turn more cautious as base oils margins extend rise to levels that point to increasingly firm supply-demand fundamentals.· Buyers that deem supply-demand fundamentals to be less tight could decide to hold off in anticipation of a price adjustment that reflects those less tight fundamentals.· Surge in shipments to southeast Asia in July 2024 point to sufficient supply in that region.· Restart of base oils units in China likely to boost supply, cover more of country’s seasonal rise in demand, curbing demand for overseas shipments.· Demand in Europe could stay more cautious as base oils prices extend rise relative to prices in other regions, raising prospect of more supplies targeting European market.· Any such rise in supplies would contrast with signs of still-muted lube demand in the region.· Buyers’ stock-building in US raises prospect of sufficient supply in that market, especially if any weather-related supply disruptions are more muted than expected.· Typical seasonal pick-up in US demand in Sept 2024 could be more muted than usual as buyers first tap and work down the stocks they build up in recent months.· Latin America’s base oils demand could start to ease, with any additional supplies from overseas markets unlikely to reach the region before the fourth quarter of the year..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 Aug
· Global crude oil prices hold in lower range, with more bearish supply-demand fundamentals outweighing supportive factors such as geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar versus other currencies.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays close to weakest level in more than a year.· Global base oils demand could turn more cautious as base oils margins extend rise to levels that point to increasingly firm supply-demand fundamentals.· Buyers that deem supply-demand fundamentals to be less tight could decide to hold off in anticipation of a price adjustment that reflects those less tight fundamentals.· Surge in shipments to southeast Asia in July 2024 point to sufficient supply in that region.· Restart of base oils units in China likely to boost supply, cover more of country’s seasonal rise in demand, curbing demand for overseas shipments.· Demand in Europe could stay more cautious as base oils prices extend rise relative to prices in other regions, raising prospect of more supplies targeting European market.· Any such rise in supplies would contrast with signs of still-muted lube demand in the region.· Buyers’ stock-building in US raises prospect of sufficient supply in that market, especially if any weather-related supply disruptions are more muted than expected.· Typical seasonal pick-up in US demand in Sept 2024 could be more muted than usual as buyers first tap and work down the stocks they build up in recent months.· Latin America’s base oils demand could start to ease, with any additional supplies from overseas markets unlikely to reach the region before the fourth quarter of the year..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 26 Aug.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 26 Aug
