· Crude oil prices rise to highest in more than four months amid prospect of tighter-than-expected supply-demand balance.· Diesel premium to crude holds steady, suggesting rise in prices is driven more by crude oil fundamentals.· Break-out of crude oil prices to higher levels puts pressure on refiners to raise base oils prices in response to higher feedstock costs.· Signs of some such moves to raise prices come at a time of year when global base oils demand usually gets a seasonal boost as blenders prepare for oil-change season.· Concern about higher prices could add to pace of pick-up in demand.· Expectations of sufficient availability raise prospect of limiting the size of any price-adjustment and maintaining buyers’ preference of procuring on a need-to basis.· Asia’s base oils demand typically rises first, followed by other regions.· Asia’s base oils demand could ease in anticipation of slowdown in lube demand at start of second quarter of the year.· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could stay at lower levels as buyers maintain low inventories.· India’s base oils demand could be more mixed, with firm prices pointing to steady buying interest even ahead of typical slowdown in lube demand at start of second quarter of the year.· Europe’s base oils demand could get a boost if expectations of plentiful supply turn to concern about sufficient supply.· US base oils demand could get a boost amid signs of moves to adjust posted prices.· US base oils demand could get further support if gap between export and domestic prices were to narrow, pointing to shrinking surplus availability.· Overseas demand for US supplies likely to hold firm with prices holding at unusually competitive levels..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of March 18.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of March 18
