· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay mixed as firm lube consumption and more workable arbitrage in India and southeast Asia supports steadier buying interest in those markets.· Demand in China could get a temporary boost as blenders replenish inventories after week-long public holiday.· Sustainability of any pick-up in China's base oils demand depends on strength of any revival in country’s lube consumption.· Domestic refiners likely to benefit more from any recovery in demand amid closed arbitrage to move Group II supplies to China..· Japan’s August base oils/lube demand rises for third time in four months on firmer automobile lube consumption..· Rising demand contrasts with China’s weak lube consumption, coincides with falling domestic base oils production.· Rising demand raises prospect of growing requirements for premium-grade supplies from other sources like South Korea..· Slump in Japan’s base oils exports this year slash supplies to large outlets like Singapore and South Korea, and even more to smaller outlets like Thailand and Hong-Kong..· Extension of that trend likely to boost demand in those markets for supplies from alternative sources.· Thailand’s demand for domestic supplies of Group I base oils rises in August.· Move could reflect impact of drop in Group I supply from other sources like Japan..· Thailand’s August lube demand rises for first time in six months as HDEO, industrial oils consumption rises, countering unusual slump in PCMO demand..· Firmer demand adds to signs of steadier consumption in other southeast Asian markets like Vietnam after slowdown in 1H 2023.· Trend boosts attraction for regional refiners to prioritise southeast Asian market..· Singapore’s base oils exports over past four weeks show relatively steady flows to India and Indonesia and slide in shipments to China..· India’s base oils demand for spot volumes likely to slow down as crude oil price volatility raises concern about sustainability of current base oil prices.· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils already faced pressure from shrinking domestic retail diesel premium to imported base oils prices.· Demand could ease further as buyers wait for very-light grade prices to adjust following fall in crude and diesel prices.· Refiners could delay moves to adjust very-light grade prices amid current crude-price volatility..Global base oils - week of Oct 9: Demand outlook
