· Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more mixed amid crude price volatility, mixed signals from China.· Chinese demand shows some signs of improvement, but still weaker than usual at time of year consumption gets seasonal boost.· China’s low base oils output in September and weak margins point to slack demand that was too weak to support firmer prices.· Demand weakness coincided with seasonal pick-up in demand from end of Q3 2023.· Demand weakness suggests seasonal pick-up in demand has so far been more muted than usual.· China’s domestic light-grade prices rise versus diesel so far in October, pointing to either the effect of recent crude price volatility or signs of firmer buying interest. .· Taiwan’s September base oils exports fall mostly because of slump in shipments to China..· Exports to China fall even ahead of planned plant maintenance in Taiwan in October, pointing to scant urgency to build stocks to cover for drop in supplies during shutdown.· Slump in Taiwan’s exports to China add to signs of the country's still-muted lube demand and blenders’ ongoing caution..· Taiwan’s September exports to SE Asia and India by rise to six-month high..· Shipments tap firmer demand in those markets, extending trend that began last year and is likely to continue. .· Singapore’s base oils exports to China rebound last week, lifting four-week export volumes to levels that exceed shipments to India and Indonesia for first time since June..· Rise in shipments to China likely reflects temporary moves to replenish stocks after public holidays in early October.· Should it materialize, a more sustained recovery in shipments could point to improving demand..· Philippines’ August base oils/lube demand extends steep slide, contrasting with signs of steadier consumption in other southeast Asian markets like Thailand and Vietnam.· Lower imports show little sign of curbing rising flow of shipments from South Korea to Philippines.· South Korea’s rising share of Philippines’ imports contrasts with slump in flows from Singapore to Philippines..· Trend points to ongoing competition for market-share throughout southeast Asia..· India’s September lube demand rises for third time in four months..· Rising lube consumption set to support firm demand for overseas base oils supplies as blenders consume inventories more quickly.· Demand is likely to focus on Asia-Pacific and Mideast Gulf refiners rather than the US, whose supplies to India already showed signs of falling sharply in September.· India’s procurement of large volumes of bright stock from Thailand in recent months could curb demand from other sources like Saudi Arabia and Singapore.· India’s demand for very-light grade supplies could stay more muted amid recent crude/gasoil price volatility and in view of narrower base oil price discount to domestic retail diesel prices.· India’s higher very-light grade base oils prices in recent weeks point to firmer underlying demand for supplies to use for lubricants production.· Higher prices could also reflect tighter availability following slowdown in shipments from US. .· Pakistan’s August lube demand rises for second month to fourteen-month high.· Trend partly reflects low base level this time last year and partly reflects signs of steadier economic activity.· Pakistan’s firmer lube consumption contrasts with falling domestic base oils output..· Trend suggests recovery in lube demand likely to have larger benefit on base oils supplies from overseas markets..Global base oils - week of Oct 16: Price signals - arbitrage
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to be more mixed amid crude price volatility, mixed signals from China.· Chinese demand shows some signs of improvement, but still weaker than usual at time of year consumption gets seasonal boost.· China’s low base oils output in September and weak margins point to slack demand that was too weak to support firmer prices.· Demand weakness coincided with seasonal pick-up in demand from end of Q3 2023.· Demand weakness suggests seasonal pick-up in demand has so far been more muted than usual.· China’s domestic light-grade prices rise versus diesel so far in October, pointing to either the effect of recent crude price volatility or signs of firmer buying interest. .· Taiwan’s September base oils exports fall mostly because of slump in shipments to China..· Exports to China fall even ahead of planned plant maintenance in Taiwan in October, pointing to scant urgency to build stocks to cover for drop in supplies during shutdown.· Slump in Taiwan’s exports to China add to signs of the country's still-muted lube demand and blenders’ ongoing caution..· Taiwan’s September exports to SE Asia and India by rise to six-month high..· Shipments tap firmer demand in those markets, extending trend that began last year and is likely to continue. .· Singapore’s base oils exports to China rebound last week, lifting four-week export volumes to levels that exceed shipments to India and Indonesia for first time since June..· Rise in shipments to China likely reflects temporary moves to replenish stocks after public holidays in early October.· Should it materialize, a more sustained recovery in shipments could point to improving demand..· Philippines’ August base oils/lube demand extends steep slide, contrasting with signs of steadier consumption in other southeast Asian markets like Thailand and Vietnam.· Lower imports show little sign of curbing rising flow of shipments from South Korea to Philippines.· South Korea’s rising share of Philippines’ imports contrasts with slump in flows from Singapore to Philippines..· Trend points to ongoing competition for market-share throughout southeast Asia..· India’s September lube demand rises for third time in four months..· Rising lube consumption set to support firm demand for overseas base oils supplies as blenders consume inventories more quickly.· Demand is likely to focus on Asia-Pacific and Mideast Gulf refiners rather than the US, whose supplies to India already showed signs of falling sharply in September.· India’s procurement of large volumes of bright stock from Thailand in recent months could curb demand from other sources like Saudi Arabia and Singapore.· India’s demand for very-light grade supplies could stay more muted amid recent crude/gasoil price volatility and in view of narrower base oil price discount to domestic retail diesel prices.· India’s higher very-light grade base oils prices in recent weeks point to firmer underlying demand for supplies to use for lubricants production.· Higher prices could also reflect tighter availability following slowdown in shipments from US. .· Pakistan’s August lube demand rises for second month to fourteen-month high.· Trend partly reflects low base level this time last year and partly reflects signs of steadier economic activity.· Pakistan’s firmer lube consumption contrasts with falling domestic base oils output..· Trend suggests recovery in lube demand likely to have larger benefit on base oils supplies from overseas markets..Global base oils - week of Oct 16: Price signals - arbitrage
