· Asia-Pacific base oils demand likely to get support from expectations of tighter surplus supply and firm-to-higher prices over coming weeks.· Prospect of seasonal pick-up in end-user lube demand adds to buyers’ base oils requirements.· Strength of seasonal pick-up in lube demand shows signs of being more muted than usual, incentivizing blenders to procure sufficient supplies to cover requirements only.· Any such trend would likely limit extent of any rise in prices.· China’s demand for regional base oils supplies shows signs of slowing in September after picking up in August.· China’s passenger car sales edge up in August year-on-year, lag the ongoing surge in alternative-vehicle sales. · Base oils demand in southeast Asia likely to be more mixed but remain firmer than usual..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks rise close to six-month high on the back of synchronised pick-up in shipments to China, Indonesia and India..· Higher-than-usual shipments to India and Indonesia balance out lower-than-usual volumes to China.· Extension of that trend would cushion impact of slower demand from China..· Southeast Asia’s base oils imports fall in July and in first seven months of the year.· Asia refiners’ July base oils exports to southeast Asia follow similar pattern..· Trend could curb southeast Asia’s role as counterbalance against weaker Chinese demand.· Base oils volumes in southeast Asia in 2023 remain substantially higher than in 2021 – reflecting how refiners have already cut sharply their exposure to China.· Still, southeast Asia’s growing market as outlet for regional base oils supplies increases the impact of any slowdown in demand in the region..· Thailand’s domestic base oils demand falls in July to lowest in more than a decade..· Trend reflects combination of rising domestic consumption of premium-grade base oils and falling outright lube demand, especially of industrial oils.· Thailand’s July engine oils demand rises for first time in four months, contrasting with ongoing slide in industrial oils consumption..· Trend increases importance of export markets to maintain Thailand's base oil supply-demand balance.· Thailand’s July base oils exports maintain higher-than-usual share of country’s total demand..· Extension of trend could help counter likely drop in base oils exports from Japan over coming months..· India’s base oils demand likely to hold firm ahead of/during festivals season, boosting need to attract more overseas supplies and to keep arbitrage open.· India’s retail diesel price premium to imported prices for very-light grade base oils falls to narrowest in eleven months.· Trend likely to limit size of Indian buyers’ requirements for very light grade base oils.· India’s base oils imports show signs of falling in August from previous month, partly because of slowing arbitrage shipments from US.· Other arbitrage shipments in August include more supplies of bright stock from Thailand and larger-than-usual volumes of light grades from China.· India’s August automobile sales rise for seventh time in eight months, with demand for three-wheelers climbing to record-high levels.· Prospect of lower-than-usual monsoon rains could impact automobile demand in rural market..Global base oils - week of Sep 11: Price outlook - arbitrage
· Asia-Pacific base oils demand likely to get support from expectations of tighter surplus supply and firm-to-higher prices over coming weeks.· Prospect of seasonal pick-up in end-user lube demand adds to buyers’ base oils requirements.· Strength of seasonal pick-up in lube demand shows signs of being more muted than usual, incentivizing blenders to procure sufficient supplies to cover requirements only.· Any such trend would likely limit extent of any rise in prices.· China’s demand for regional base oils supplies shows signs of slowing in September after picking up in August.· China’s passenger car sales edge up in August year-on-year, lag the ongoing surge in alternative-vehicle sales. · Base oils demand in southeast Asia likely to be more mixed but remain firmer than usual..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks rise close to six-month high on the back of synchronised pick-up in shipments to China, Indonesia and India..· Higher-than-usual shipments to India and Indonesia balance out lower-than-usual volumes to China.· Extension of that trend would cushion impact of slower demand from China..· Southeast Asia’s base oils imports fall in July and in first seven months of the year.· Asia refiners’ July base oils exports to southeast Asia follow similar pattern..· Trend could curb southeast Asia’s role as counterbalance against weaker Chinese demand.· Base oils volumes in southeast Asia in 2023 remain substantially higher than in 2021 – reflecting how refiners have already cut sharply their exposure to China.· Still, southeast Asia’s growing market as outlet for regional base oils supplies increases the impact of any slowdown in demand in the region..· Thailand’s domestic base oils demand falls in July to lowest in more than a decade..· Trend reflects combination of rising domestic consumption of premium-grade base oils and falling outright lube demand, especially of industrial oils.· Thailand’s July engine oils demand rises for first time in four months, contrasting with ongoing slide in industrial oils consumption..· Trend increases importance of export markets to maintain Thailand's base oil supply-demand balance.· Thailand’s July base oils exports maintain higher-than-usual share of country’s total demand..· Extension of trend could help counter likely drop in base oils exports from Japan over coming months..· India’s base oils demand likely to hold firm ahead of/during festivals season, boosting need to attract more overseas supplies and to keep arbitrage open.· India’s retail diesel price premium to imported prices for very-light grade base oils falls to narrowest in eleven months.· Trend likely to limit size of Indian buyers’ requirements for very light grade base oils.· India’s base oils imports show signs of falling in August from previous month, partly because of slowing arbitrage shipments from US.· Other arbitrage shipments in August include more supplies of bright stock from Thailand and larger-than-usual volumes of light grades from China.· India’s August automobile sales rise for seventh time in eight months, with demand for three-wheelers climbing to record-high levels.· Prospect of lower-than-usual monsoon rains could impact automobile demand in rural market..Global base oils - week of Sep 11: Price outlook - arbitrage
