· Asia’s base oils demand likely to soften as improving availability and falling feedstock prices incentivize buyers to hold back.· China’s demand shows more mixed signals; India’s demand could ease as rising supply gives buyers leverage to hold off locking in requirements.· China’s domestic Group II price premium to fob Asia prices stays low even as it extends gradual rise.· Trend points to sufficient domestic supply to meet demand.· China’s domestic bright stock price holds firm versus fob Asia levels, sustaining feasibility of arbitrage flows..· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports to China stay higher than usual, pointing to firmer domestic demand or rise in the country’s stocks..· Rising exports coincide with ongoing slowdown in Singapore’s base oil imports from China in recent weeks.· Drop in shipments to Singapore coincides with rise in China’s base oils output in Nov 2023.· Rising domestic output and drop in shipments to Singapore point to round of stock-building or firmer domestic consumption. .· Thailand’s October lube demand rises for third month after eleven-month slide..· Reviving demand adds to signs of firm consumption in key markets in southeast Asia.· Growing demand highlights importance of the region for Asia-Pacific refiners and importance of boosting market share in the region.· Region’s firmer demand would still be insufficient to absorb likely rise in Asia’s base oils supply over coming weeks..· Indonesia’s October base oils imports rise to highest in more than four years on sustained surge in shipments from Singapore..· Rise in supplies from Singapore contrasts with slump in flows from South Korea.· Trend boosts Singapore’s share of Indonesia’s base oils imports to 70pc of the total in first ten months of 2023, up from 56pc in 2022..· Singapore’s rising share of growing market provides valuable outlet to counter more mixed demand in other key outlets like China and India.· Trend increases pressure on South Korean refiners to boost shipments to other markets..· India’s firm domestic lube consumption in Q4 2023 boosts its base oils requirements.· Growing signs of healthy availability from different sources and lower prices incentivize Indian buyers to hold back for now.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India stay lower than usual in recent weeks..· Most recent slowdown in Singapore’s exports to India was in Q2 2023, when wave of arbitrage shipments from US moved to India.· Slowdown in shipments this time shows signs of repeating that pattern as more arbitrage shipments from US move to India.· Slowdown in shipments from Singapore and South Korea to India in Q2 2023 balanced out rise in supplies from US.· Slowdown in shipments from Singapore this time could have smaller impact amid higher exports from South Korea to India.· India’s retail diesel price premium to cfr India N70 prices widens in Dec 2023 to widest in four months.· Widening diesel premium to light-grade base oils prices often coincides with firmer demand for light-grade base oils..Global base oils - week of Dec 11: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Dec 11: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Dec 11: Demand outlook
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to soften as improving availability and falling feedstock prices incentivize buyers to hold back.· China’s demand shows more mixed signals; India’s demand could ease as rising supply gives buyers leverage to hold off locking in requirements.· China’s domestic Group II price premium to fob Asia prices stays low even as it extends gradual rise.· Trend points to sufficient domestic supply to meet demand.· China’s domestic bright stock price holds firm versus fob Asia levels, sustaining feasibility of arbitrage flows..· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports to China stay higher than usual, pointing to firmer domestic demand or rise in the country’s stocks..· Rising exports coincide with ongoing slowdown in Singapore’s base oil imports from China in recent weeks.· Drop in shipments to Singapore coincides with rise in China’s base oils output in Nov 2023.· Rising domestic output and drop in shipments to Singapore point to round of stock-building or firmer domestic consumption. .· Thailand’s October lube demand rises for third month after eleven-month slide..· Reviving demand adds to signs of firm consumption in key markets in southeast Asia.· Growing demand highlights importance of the region for Asia-Pacific refiners and importance of boosting market share in the region.· Region’s firmer demand would still be insufficient to absorb likely rise in Asia’s base oils supply over coming weeks..· Indonesia’s October base oils imports rise to highest in more than four years on sustained surge in shipments from Singapore..· Rise in supplies from Singapore contrasts with slump in flows from South Korea.· Trend boosts Singapore’s share of Indonesia’s base oils imports to 70pc of the total in first ten months of 2023, up from 56pc in 2022..· Singapore’s rising share of growing market provides valuable outlet to counter more mixed demand in other key outlets like China and India.· Trend increases pressure on South Korean refiners to boost shipments to other markets..· India’s firm domestic lube consumption in Q4 2023 boosts its base oils requirements.· Growing signs of healthy availability from different sources and lower prices incentivize Indian buyers to hold back for now.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India stay lower than usual in recent weeks..· Most recent slowdown in Singapore’s exports to India was in Q2 2023, when wave of arbitrage shipments from US moved to India.· Slowdown in shipments this time shows signs of repeating that pattern as more arbitrage shipments from US move to India.· Slowdown in shipments from Singapore and South Korea to India in Q2 2023 balanced out rise in supplies from US.· Slowdown in shipments from Singapore this time could have smaller impact amid higher exports from South Korea to India.· India’s retail diesel price premium to cfr India N70 prices widens in Dec 2023 to widest in four months.· Widening diesel premium to light-grade base oils prices often coincides with firmer demand for light-grade base oils..Global base oils - week of Dec 11: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Dec 11: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Dec 11: Demand outlook
