· US base oils demand likely to stay muted amid expectations of waning end-user consumption and improving supply in coming weeks.· US base oils demand typically falls in month of November from October..· Prospect of slowdown in demand would coincide with rise in supply following expected completion of plant-maintenance in H1 Nov 2025.· Domestic base oils prices stay unusually steady relative to feedstock prices and export prices for most of the year..· Steady price-differentials point to relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals and could incentivize buyers to maintain rather than hold off procurement plans.· Any concern that supply-demand fundamentals could change could conversely prompt moves to hold back..· Overseas demand for US supplies could be more mixed.· US Group II base oils prices maintain wide discount to prices in markets like Europe and India, especially for heavy grades..· Prospect of seasonal slowdown in demand in Europe and rising supply in Asia could still deter buyers from seeking arbitrage shipments..· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious amid weak end-user demand and ready availability of supply.· Weak lube consumption growth and seasonal slowdown in demand at year-end add to incentive for blenders to maintain low stocks.· France’s lube demand falls in Aug 2025 for fourth time in five months amid persistently weak consumption of industrial oils..· Weak lube consumption adds to contraction in Europe’s lube demand in Aug 2025..· Europe’s base oils prices point to increasingly weak demand for Group I supplies relative to other grades.· Europe domestic Group I price-discount to Group II prices holds at widest level in more than two years, reflecting that dynamic..· Demand in Middle East could be slower in coming weeks as wave of shipments from Asia adds to blenders’ stocks.· Asia’s base oils exports to Middle East rise in Sept 2025 to highest since early-2023..· Most of those shipments are likely to reach Middle East during Q4 2025.· Any subsequent slowdown in requirements would remove key outlet for surplus volumes from markets like Europe and US at a time of year when they often have surplus shipments to clear.· Any slowdown in requirements, and any extension of Asia’s high exports into Q4 2025, could force more of Asia’s supplies to target other outlets instead.· Any such moves to target other outlets could face additional competition from supplies from US or Europe.· Prospect of rise in supply and weak demand adds to incentive for buyers in Middle East to hold back and consume existing stocks first.· Prospect of rise in supply and weak demand likely to cushion impact of planned plant-maintenance work in Saudi Arabia in Nov-Dec 2025..Asia's September base oils exports to Middle East rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 27 October.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
