· Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious as lower crude oil prices coincide with improving supply of most base oils grades.· Lower crude prices and rising supply increase concern about exposure to further downward pressure on base oils prices.· Signs of healthy stocks in all key regional markets give buyers flexibility to hold back until they are comfortable that any price-adjustments have been completed.· China’s base oils demand shows signs of holding relatively steady at a time of year when it typically starts to ebb.· China’s domestic Group II light-grade price rises vs Shandong diesel prices, holds firm vs FOB Asia cargo price..· Firm or rising domestic Group II light-grade price-premium contrasts with sliding price-differential the same time a year earlier.· Group II light-grade price-premium stays firm even with unusually high base oils output in China in Aug-Sept 2025.· China’s domestic Group I SN 400 price-premium to FOB Asia Group I SN 500 cargo price extends rise to highest in more than a year..· Rising domestic SN 400 premium points to tight supply-demand fundamentals, leaves arbitrage increasingly feasible.· Open arbitrage to move cargoes to China coincides with offers of Group I SN 500 supplies from China into Asia cargo market.· Offers of Group I SN 500 cargoes for export point to surplus supply in China..· Demand in southeast Asia could stay cautious amid healthy inventories and rising availability of supply.· Exports to southeast Asia from Asia’s largest suppliers edge up to fourteen-month high in Sept 2025, from thirteen-month high in Aug 2025..· Exports remain elevated as rise in shipments from Singapore and Taiwan balance out dip in supplies from South Korea.· Elevated export volumes likely keep buyers’ stocks at healthy levels.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia over last four weeks extend fall to lowest level in five months..· Dip in shipments could reflect buyers’ healthy stocks and moves to work down those existing supplies.· South Korea’s base oils exports to Middle East rebound in Sept 2025, contrasting with dip in shipments to southeast Asia..· Trade flows add to signs of more muted demand in southeast Asia.· South Korea’s base oils exports to India rise to sixteen-month high in Sept 2025..· Rise in shipments points to stronger demand in India than in southeast Asia.· Rise in exports to Middle East, even with surge in shipments to India, could point to signs of India’s demand starting to top out.· Any such pause or slowdown in India’s requirements would follow jump in its imports in Sept 2025..· Rise in imports replenishes blenders’ low stocks, curbing need to line up another large wave of shipments.· Rise in imports mostly reflects surge in shipments from South Korea..· Imports from Singapore could also extend rise in coming months following recent start-up of new base oils unit in that country.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India over past four weeks already extend rise to highest since H1 July 2025..· Rise in imports from key sources in Asia could cushion impact of any slowdown in shipments from Saudi Arabia in Q4 because of plant-maintenance work.· Rise in imports from key sources in Asia could also curb demand for paraffinic base oils supplies from US.· India’s paraffinic base oils imports from US surge in Aug 2025 before slumping in Sept 2025..· Opportunity for US suppliers to tap India as outlet for surplus paraffinic base oils volumes could fade amid rise in supply in Asia, and shortly, in India..· India’s imported Group II light-grade price-premium to FOB Asia cargo price edges up to four-month high..· Firm light-grade price-premium contrasts with recent dip in Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB Asia cargo price.· Light-grade price-premium stays higher even as surge in India’s imports of Group II light grades in Sept 2025 help to replenish blenders’ low stocks..· Wider light-grade price-premium than heavy-grade premium could reflect more prolonged pick-up in imports of heavy grades, and wider availability of heavy grades beyond Asia.· Asia by contrast remains key source of India’s Group II light-grade imports, with more limited competition from other markets..India’s September base oils imports rise.S Korea September exports to India rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October.India’s September Group II imports rise
