· Asia’s base oils demand could ease amid expectations that supply is likely to rise from already-healthy levels.· Signs of healthy inventory levels in China and southeast Asia curb further any urgency to buy.· Reversal of crude oil prices back to their medium-term range erodes further any pressure on prices to rise in response to squeezed margins.· Prospect of steady-to-lower prices adds to incentive for buyers to maintain lower stocks..· CFR India Group II N500 price-premium to FOB Asia cargo price falls sharply in early-Oct 2025..· Price-premium falls below narrow range it held in since early-April 2025.· Any extension of trend would cut attraction of moving more heavy-grade supplies to India.· Less attractive arbitrage to move Group II heavy grades to India would put pressure on suppliers in Asia to adjust their prices in response or to target other markets instead.· Squeezed price-premium could reflect rising availability of supply rather than major change in outright demand.· Rising availability, and buyers’ expectations that prices face more downward pressure, could still boost incentive to hold back to curb exposure to any such price adjustments. · Signs of strong rise in base oils imports in recent weeks help to replenish buyers’ depleted stocks.· Replenished stocks curb further buyers’ urgency to lock in additional volumes.· Imports in first three weeks of Sept 2025 almost match total imports in all of Aug 2025..· Singapore’s base oils exports to India show signs of rising strongly in Sept 2025..· Rise in shipments could extend recovery in India’s imports into Oct 2025.· India’s imports rise in recent weeks after country’s base oils supply lags demand in Aug 2025 for second time in three months..· Rise in imports likely to replenish depleted stocks rather than leave stocks brimming.· More balanced stocks, and seasonal pick-up in lube consumption, could support additional demand for replenishment volumes.· Unlike heavy grades, India’s imported Group II light-grade cargo price-premium to FOB Asia cargo price holds in narrow range..· Steady price-premium points to ongoing buying interest in additional supplies.· Blenders could still prefer to keep stocks balanced rather than high, and to procure top-up volumes more frequently, in anticipation of improving supply in Asia during Q4 2025..· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could wane amid healthy availability in domestic market and prospect of slowdown in consumption through rest of Q4 2025.· Singapore’s base oils exports to China show signs of slowing in Sept 2025..· Any extension of slowdown in flows could be reflection of more muted requirements in China market.· China’s domestic Group I base oils prices extend strong rise vs FOB Asia cargo prices..· Rising domestic brightstock price-premium coincides with recent/current maintenance work at domestic plants that produce the heavy-grade base oils.· Even so, prospect of recovery in domestic supply and seasonal slowdown in demand could curb attraction of lining up arbitrage shipments to China.· Domestic Group I SN 400 price extends rise vs FOB Asia SN 500 cargo price despite availability of supplies for export.· Dynamic extends contrasting signals of widening price-premium pointing to tight fundamentals and export volumes pointing to surplus supply. .· Japan’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could rise as extended fall in domestic output shows little sign of slowing.· Japan’s demand for overseas supplies could get further boost from sharp slump in domestic base oils consumption in Aug 2025..· Fall in Japan’s domestic base oils consumption outpaces fall in country’s lube consumption so far in 2025..· Extension of trend through Q3 2025 could boost domestic blenders’ requirements for base oils supplies from overseas markets to make up shortfall..· Ongoing fall in Japan’s base oils output and exports could trigger drop in demand in southeast Asia for its supplies.· Japan’s base oils exports to southeast Asia fall to nine-month low in Aug 2025..· Buyers’ requirements for key Group I products like brightstock had sustained buying interested in demand for supplies from Japan in recent years.· Recent start-up of new Group II unit in Singapore and of production of alternative product to Group I brightstock could cut need for those supplies from Japan..· Demand in southeast Asia could be more muted amid signs of mixed finished lube consumption and healthy availability of supply.· Thailand’s lube consumption falls in Aug 2025 for sixth month from year-earlier levels to lowest in more than five years..· Slowdown magnifies size of seasonal fall in consumption.· Ongoing slowdown in demand leaves blenders’ stocks lasting longer.· Ongoing slowdown incentivizes blenders to keep inventories at lower levels.· Weaker demand contrasts pick-up in supply, with Asia’s total exports to southeast Asia rising to thirteen-month high in Aug 2025..· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay at elevated levels in Sept 2025 even with slowdown in shipments in H2 Sept 2025..· High export volumes and slack demand curb urgency to lock in additional volumes..India’s August base oils supply lags demand.Japan’s August base oils output falls.Thailand’s August lube demand falls.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 29 September.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
