· Asia’s base oils demand could get support from surge in crude oil prices and concerns about disruptions to supply in Middle East.· A sustained rise in crude oil prices would squeeze base oils margins.· Lower margins could curb downward pressure on prices.· Prospect of steady-to-firmer prices could instead support steadier demand from buyers that had been concerned about exposure to lower prices.· Concern about supply disruptions could provide additional support, especially for heavy grades and Group III base oils.· Higher crude prices and supply concerns coincide with upcoming seasonal slowdown in demand and improving supply in many markets following completion of most plant-maintenance work.· Buyers face challenge of managing simultaneously those contrasting factors that could result in growing surplus or in tighter-than-expected supply..· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could wane as domestic supply rises following completion of more plant-maintenance work.· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to FOB Asia cargo price instead holds firm after rising steadily from early-March 2025..· Firm Group II N150 premium facilitates arbitrage, points to ongoing demand for additional supplies.· Firm Group II N150 premium contrasts with ongoing fall in N500 premium to FOB Asia cargo price, pointing to weaker buying interest in heavy-grade supplies..· Healthy availability and seasonal slowdown in requirements could curb demand in southeast Asia.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia over last four weeks extend slide after rising strongly in month to mid-May 2025..· Dynamic could point to slowdown in requirements following completion of stock-replenishment..· Thailand’s lube demand falls for second month in April 2025 from year-earlier levels..· Slowdown adds to drop in consumption in other Asia-Pacific markets like Japan, South Korea and Philippines in April 2025. .· Asia’s lube demand duly falls in April 2025 for first time in five months..· Slowdown in demand magnifies seasonal drop in consumption at start of second quarter of the year.· Slowdown in domestic demand in markets with base oils plants frees up more supplies to build or replenish stocks, or for shipment to overseas markets.· Slowdown in demand cushions impact of regional plant-maintenance work in Q2 2025.· Slowdown in demand eases concern about availability of supply, instead boosts attraction of holding lower inventories.· Any extension of slowdown in demand through to end of second quarter and start of third quarter would magnify seasonal slowdown in consumption during summer months..· India’s imported Group II N150 base oils cargo price premium to FOB Asia cargo price narrows in June 2025..· Narrower premium coincides with signs of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· India’s lube demand falls in May 2025 for second month and at fastest pace since late-2022..· Weaker lube demand leaves blenders’ stocks lasting longer, curbs urgency to replenish stocks and instead incentivizes them to maintain lower inventories.· Base oils demand typically gets boost ahead of monsoon season as blenders build stocks to limit exposure to any weather- or logistical-related disruptions.· Falling lube demand and larger-than-expected inventories could curb such moves.· More muted demand contrasts with prospect of improving supply in Asia, Middle East and US in coming months.· Dynamic boosts buyers’ leverage to target prices at levels that provide sufficient incentive to lock in additional supplies..· Pakistan’s base oils supply rises in three months to April for ninth straight month from year-earlier levels..· Sustained flow of shipments from US taps that rising supply, triggering surge in its share of Pakistan’s base oils imports..· US’ share of Pakistan’s Group II heavy-grade imports similarly rises sharply..· US’ rising share of Pakistan’s Group II heavy-grade supplies puts pressure on refiners in Asia to line up alternative outlets for their supplies..China’s May base oils output falls.Thailand’s April base oils supply exceeds demand.Asia’s April lube demand falls.India’s May lube demand falls.Pakistan’s April base oils supply holds firm.Base Oil News stories and analyses also available on the ICIS platform
