· Asia’s base oils demand could get support from moves to replenish stocks that were more balanced than expected at start of Q3 2025.· Blenders could be targeting additional supplies to cover seasonal rise in consumption in final weeks of Q3 2025.· Stocks could be more balanced than expected because of unusually strong rise in demand at end-Q2 2025.· Strong rise in demand leaves blenders with lower inventories heading into Q3 2025.· Strong rise in demand also leaves refiners with smaller overhang of surplus base oils supplies in early-Q3 2025.· More balanced fundamentals raise prospect of more range-bound base oils prices. · More range-bound base oils prices incentivize blenders to maintain rather than delay their procurement plans..· China’s base oils demand could get boost from round of stock-replenishment in coming weeks before seasonal rise in lube demand in final weeks of Q3 2025.· Signs of lower domestic base oils supply leaves blenders with lower stocks, raising prospect of stronger round of stock-replenishment.· Any such pick-up in demand could support firmer domestic base oils prices.· China’s domestic Group II light-grade base oils prices rise versus Shandong diesel prices and versus FOB Asia cargo prices in past week..· Domestic Group II N150 price-premium edges up after sustained weakness since June 2025.· Any extension of pick-up in N150 premium to diesel and to FOB Asia prices could reflect signs of moves to replenish stocks.· Length and extent of any pick-up in N150 premium would provide indication of strength of round of stock-replenishment..· China’s Group III base oils demand shows signs of persistent weakness.· China’s domestic Group III base oils price-premium to Group II light grades stays close to multi-year low in Aug 2025 even with drop in supply..· Any extension of Group III demand-weakness could force overseas suppliers to redirect even more shipments to other outlets instead.· China’s demand for Group III base oils from overseas markets already fell because of rise in its own domestic production. .· Any improvement in China’s base oils demand would coincide with signs of steady-to-firm requirements in other parts of Asia-Pacific region.· Steady requirements follow unusually strong rise in lube demand in northeast Asia and southeast Asia in June 2025..· Asia’s stronger demand leaves regional fundamentals tighter than usual throughout Q2 2025.· Steady-to-tighter fundamentals curb concern about major price-adjustments to clear surplus volumes around this time of year..· Philippines’ base oils/lube imports extend fall in June 2025, but contraction is smallest in four months..· Slowdown in pace of contraction mirrors similar trend in other markets in Asia in June 2025, adding to signs of regionwide recovery in demand..· Thailand’s demand for premium-grade base oils could be firmer at start of Q3 2025 as pick-up in domestic lube demand in June 2025 contrasts with slump in imports, especially from South Korea..· Fall in imports from South Korea coincides with maintenance work on Group III unit in that country in June 2025.· Thailand’s Group I base oils exports rise in June 2025 even with recovery in domestic lube demand..· Pick-up in exports enables buyers in Singapore especially to build stocks of Group I base oils ahead of plant-maintenance work in Thailand in Q3 2025.· Rise in Singapore’s Group I base oils imports from various markets in July 2025 and early this month could further cushion impact of Thailand’s plant-maintenance work..· Signs of stock-building in Thailand ahead of maintenance-work should leave sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements in that market.· Stock-building can bring forward impact of plant-maintenance work, then curb impact during plant shutdowns. · Imminent restart of Group I unit in Thailand after maintenance work and subsequent pick-up in supply could curb buying interest in shipments from more distant markets..· India’s imported Group II N150 cargo price premium to FOB Asia prices rises to highest in more than a month..· CFR India N150 premium rises above CFR India N500 premium to FOB Asia prices for first time in almost two months.· Dynamic makes arbitrage for light grades more attractive.· CFR India N500 price-premium stays wide vs FOB Asia and US export prices even as it slips from recent highs.· Wide premium could reflect ongoing buying interest in additional supplies.· Falling premium could curb short-term demand amid concern about exposure to lower prices.· Ongoing buying interest likely reflects need to replenish low stocks and persistent difficulty in boosting inventories because of India’s growing lube consumption.· India’s lube demand rises in July 2025 to highest since month of March, when consumption got seasonal boost..· Rise in demand in month of July coincides with monsoon season, when rainy weather can dampen lube consumption.· Lack of any such slowdown in demand this year curbs opportunity for blenders to build stocks in preparation for seasonal pick-up in consumption at end-Q3..· Slowdown in shipments from Singapore to India in recent weeks could further complicate buyers' stock-replenishment plans. .· Dip in shipments could reflect slowdown in Singapore’s base oils imports from markets like Europe in Q2 2025 and subsequent drop in re-exports of imported supplies.· Such a scenario could start to reverse following recent recovery in Singapore’s imports from Europe in recent weeks..Thailand’s June Group I base oils supply holds firm.Thailand’s June lube demand steadies.China’s July base oils output stays low.India’s July lube demand rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
