· Lower base oils supply in European markets like Italy, Finland in Q1 2023 point to recent plant maintenance work or production issues.· Italy’s February base oils output falls to ten-month low, at same time as arbitrage shipments from Italy move to outlets like Mideast Gulf and regional demand improves..· Drop in Italy’s output speeds up clear-out of surplus supplies from European market.· Italy’s February base oils stocks fall to six-month low as output slumps while demand holds strong.· Spot cargo from Italy to India in April suggests that supply continues to exceed demand when domestic output returns to higher levels.· Spot cargo moves from Italy to India in April despite cessation of Russian base oils shipments to Europe.· Trend suggests European supply remains sufficient even with loss of Russian supplies.· Shipment from Italy to India highlights and compounds difficulty for Russian supplies to secure outlets for export cargoes.· UK’s February base oils exports rise sharply from January, but shipments to EU edge only slightly higher..· Shipments clear more surplus supplies from Europe, easing regional overhang.· Shipments of base oils of Russian origin show signs of facing rising complications securing vessels compared with shipments of products like diesel of Russian origin.· Shipments of Russian base oils to overseas markets show signs of slowing in recent weeks.· Slowdown could reflect impact of plant maintenance work in Russia. It could reflect difficulty of moving shipments.· Europe continues to import small volume of base oils from Russia in February.· European blenders likely to feel impact of loss of Russian supplies as they replenish stocks during oil-change season.· Europe’s Group III base oils availability likely to remain tight amid limited supply in Q1, maintenance and seasonal rise in demand in Q2. · Base oils exports from Saudi Arabia’s port of Jeddah rebound in March, adding to Group I availability.· April-loading exports from Yanbu/Jeddah show signs of mostly moving to Mideast Gulf and India, contrasting with shipments to more diverse outlets in late-2022/early 2023..Americas/EMEA base oils - week of April 24: Demand outlook
· Lower base oils supply in European markets like Italy, Finland in Q1 2023 point to recent plant maintenance work or production issues.· Italy’s February base oils output falls to ten-month low, at same time as arbitrage shipments from Italy move to outlets like Mideast Gulf and regional demand improves..· Drop in Italy’s output speeds up clear-out of surplus supplies from European market.· Italy’s February base oils stocks fall to six-month low as output slumps while demand holds strong.· Spot cargo from Italy to India in April suggests that supply continues to exceed demand when domestic output returns to higher levels.· Spot cargo moves from Italy to India in April despite cessation of Russian base oils shipments to Europe.· Trend suggests European supply remains sufficient even with loss of Russian supplies.· Shipment from Italy to India highlights and compounds difficulty for Russian supplies to secure outlets for export cargoes.· UK’s February base oils exports rise sharply from January, but shipments to EU edge only slightly higher..· Shipments clear more surplus supplies from Europe, easing regional overhang.· Shipments of base oils of Russian origin show signs of facing rising complications securing vessels compared with shipments of products like diesel of Russian origin.· Shipments of Russian base oils to overseas markets show signs of slowing in recent weeks.· Slowdown could reflect impact of plant maintenance work in Russia. It could reflect difficulty of moving shipments.· Europe continues to import small volume of base oils from Russia in February.· European blenders likely to feel impact of loss of Russian supplies as they replenish stocks during oil-change season.· Europe’s Group III base oils availability likely to remain tight amid limited supply in Q1, maintenance and seasonal rise in demand in Q2. · Base oils exports from Saudi Arabia’s port of Jeddah rebound in March, adding to Group I availability.· April-loading exports from Yanbu/Jeddah show signs of mostly moving to Mideast Gulf and India, contrasting with shipments to more diverse outlets in late-2022/early 2023..Americas/EMEA base oils - week of April 24: Demand outlook
