· US base oils demand likely to stay muted.· Expectations of growing surplus supplies boost attraction of maintaining lower stocks and procuring smaller top-up volumes more frequently.· Buyers could seek to maintain sufficient volumes to cover any supply-disruptions as market heads into time of year when Atlantic hurricane activity typically peaks.· Hurricane activity remains muted so far, although tropical storm forms in eastern Atlantic.· Rangebound crude oil prices curb concern about any upward-pressure on base oils prices.· Sustained pressure on US base oils export prices instead raise prospect of growing pressure on domestic prices as gap between domestic and export prices widen..· US base oils export flows add to signs of weaker domestic demand.· US base oils/lube exports to Mexico and India rise in June 2025 even as total US exports fall..· Rise in shipments to key export-outlets for spot volumes points to weak demand from term buyers in domestic and overseas markets.· Weak domestic demand in month of June suggests buyers were wary about volume of additional supplies to procure as cover for any supply-disruptions during Q3 2025..· Fall in US Group III base oils prices adds to signs of weak domestic demand..· Group III prices fall despite heavy round of Group III plant-maintenance in Middle East and Asia in Q2 2025.· Lower prices suggest supply is more than sufficient to meet demand even as plant-maintenance cut export volumes..· Overseas demand for US supplies could hold firm as export prices stay competitive relative to prices in other markets..· Buying interest in markets like India could extend beyond Group II base oils to products like Group I brightstock..· Latin America’s base oils demand shows mixed signals.· US base oils exports to South America slump in June 2025 to lowest level this year and second-lowest in more than three years..· Fall in shipments points to slack demand from term buyers in the region.· Weaker demand coincides with falling lube consumption in key markets like Brazil.· Slump in US exports to South America in June 2025 could still leave that market with tight supply even with slowdown in demand.· Tight supply could trigger revival in demand for replenishment shipments..· Europe’s base oils demand could get support from stock-replenishment ahead of typical seasonal pick-up in consumption at end-Q3.· Expectations of sufficient supply of most base oils grades, and of rangebound or lower prices, incentivize buyers to limit any stock-build.· Regional lube demand stays mixed, adding to incentive to maintain lower stocks.· France’s lube demand falls in June 2025 for second time in three months on sustained slowdown in automobile lubricants consumption..· Drop in demand in markets like France and Poland in June 2025 contrasts with firmer consumption in Italy, pointing to muted, if any, regional growth..· Europe’s Group II base oils prices maintain steeper premium to Group I prices, especially for heavy grades..· High Group II price-premium points to firm demand even as improving availability of Group I base oils gives buyers the option to procure more of those supplies instead.· Any extension of trend could point to more long-term switch to using Group II heavy grades.· Any subsequent fall in demand for Group I heavy neutrals could trigger pick-up in surplus volumes for overseas markets..· Overseas demand for Europe’s base oils supply could ease further following expected ramp-up of new production-capacity in Singapore in coming weeks.· Singapore’s base oils imports from Europe rise strongly in recent weeks following slowdown in Q2 2025..· Any slowdown in such shipments from Europe could put pressure on the supplies to target other outlets instead..US June base oils/lube exports fall.US June base oil exports to S America fall.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 August.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
