· US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient availability of supply even with current plant-maintenance work and as regular export cargoes remove surplus volumes.· Sufficient availability of supply suggests demand is sufficiently weak to balance out current drop in volumes.· US domestic Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds in narrow range so far in Q4 2025, reflecting that dynamic..· Rangebound price-premium contrasts with strong rise in domestic Group II price-premium at end-Q1 2025, when plant-maintenance coincided with seasonal rise in demand.· Expectations of pick-up in supply following completion of plant-maintenance could magnify impact of weak demand.· Rise in supply would coincide with prospect of steeper seasonal slowdown in consumption at year-end.· Recent weakness of crude oil prices, unusually firm base oils margins for time of year, and seasonal slowdown add to incentive to hold back to limit exposure to any price adjustments..· Latin America’s demand for US base oils could ease amid expectations of improving availability in that market and in other regions.· South Korea’s base oils exports to Latin America rise to one-year high in Q3 2025, even with arbitrage hard to work..· Prospect of further rise in Asia’s base oils supply, and replenished stocks in India and Middle East, could prompt sellers to line up more shipments to markets like Latin America.· Prospect of rise in surplus supply incentivizes buyers to maintain lower stocks to benefit from any subsequent adjustment in prices over coming months.· Weak lube demand in Latin America’s largest markets adds to incentive to manage stocks carefully..· Mexico’s lube demand falls in Aug 2025 for ninth time in ten months from year-earlier levels, reflecting that dynamic.· Demand falls as dip in industrial oils consumption gathers pace..· Weaker industrial oils consumption mirrors steep dip in Mexico’s industrial consumption and slowdown in automobile output in Aug 2025.· Weaker end-user lube consumption could compound likely slowdown in Mexico’s base oils demand as market adapts to latest set of import rules..· Europe’s base oils demand could stay muted amid signs of healthy availability of supply and slack lube consumption.· Lube demand in key markets like Spain falls in Aug 2025, magnifying seasonal dip in consumption..· Anaemic lube demand growth in key markets in first eight months of 2025 raises prospect of extension of that trend over following months.· Steady rather than growing lube consumption curbs risk of blenders facing tighter-than-expected supply.· Flatlining lube consumption facilitates blenders’ stock-reduction plans before year-end.· Blenders’ already-low inventories could curb impact of those moves.· Europe Group III base oils demand shows signs of holding firm.· Europe Group III base oils prices maintain steep premium to prices in other markets even amid signs of improving availability of supply..· Steep price-premium and improving supply suggest demand is increasingly key factor supporting firm price levels.· Steep price-premium and improving supply suggest demand will need to stay stronger to support firm price levels..· Group I base oils demand in overseas markets could face pressure from availability of supplies from other sources at more competitive price levels.· FOB Europe Group I SN 500 price-premium to FOB Asia cargo price widens further in Oct 2025..· Price-premium previously fell in H1 Sept 2025 to lowest level in more than a year.· FOB Europe SN 500 price-premium widens in face of rising supply in Asia, putting downward pressure on prices in that region.· Widening SN 500 price-premium complicates arbitrage, cuts attraction of seeking supplies from Europe.· Recent resumption of Group I shipments from Argentina to West Africa reflects growing availability of supplies from alternative sources.· Prospect of rise in Group II supply in US in coming weeks could add to those supply options, further curbing interest in Group I supplies from Europe..S Korea’s September exports to US rise.Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 13 October.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 20 October.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 20 October.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
