Latin America’s lube demand is set to rise in the coming months from the first quarter of the year, providing a valuable outlet for base oils supplies from the US.But the benefit of the pick-up in demand could be smaller than last year.The region's lube consumption is set to rise to around 520,000 tonnes in the second quarter and around 530,000 tonnes in the third quarter of the year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would be up from around 500,000 tonnes during the first three months of the year.The size of the increase in Latin America’s lube demand in the second and third quarters is likely to being smaller than expected.The more muted rise reflects signs of a slowdown in the region’s lube consumption from year-earlier levels extending for longer and to more markets.The region also faces a lighter round of scheduled base oils plant maintenance this year, raising the prospect of a pick-up in domestic supplies.Brazil’s base oils output slumped during the second half of last year because of a heavy round of plant maintenance work.The drop in supply triggered a surge in demand for shipments from the US to cover the shortfall.That scenario is unlikely to repeat itself this year.The prospect of higher supply and a more muted rise in regional demand over the coming months could in turn curb requirements for base oils shipments from the US compared with year-earlier levels.Such a scenario would increase the need for US base oils suppliers to keep the arbitrage open to move more supplies to other markets. .Brazil’s March lube demand falls.Argentina’s March lube demand falls
