Lube demand in Latin America is likely to ebb over the coming months amid a seasonal dip in consumption.Lower consumption would cut blenders’ base oils requirements and trim demand for supplies from overseas markets.The US is the largest source of overseas base oils supplies for Latin America.A slowdown in base oils demand would cushion the impact of any disruptions to supplies from the US over the coming weeks.Slower demand could conversely complicate US suppliers’ moves to clear surplus base oils volumes if any such disruptions are relatively muted.Latin America’s lube consumption is forecast to slip to less than 555,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of the year, from around 600,000 tonnes during the third quarter, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The region’s demand has usually peaked in the second and third quarters in recent years.Consumption then bottoms out in the fourth quarter of each year before reviving at the start of the following year.The prospect of a slowdown in lube demand could also complicate buyers’ interest in additional arbitrage base oils shipments from more distant sources like Asia.Any shipments that loaded in the coming weeks would reach Latin America in the fourth quarter, when demand is likely to be slowing.The arrival of any such shipments could also magnify a slowdown in regional buyers’ requirements for base oils supplies from the US.Such a scenario would boost the attraction for US suppliers to close the arbitrage from Asia. .Latin America’s June lube demand rises.Brazil’s July lube demand extends rise
