Global base oils exports to key markets in Africa fell to a six-month low in March amid an ongoing slide in shipments from Europe.The slowdown outweighed a rise in US exports to the region to a four-month high.The dynamic highlighted the increasingly tight surplus supply in Europe and persistent surplus supply in the US.Total base oils exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya combined came to less than 78,000 tonnes in March, government data showed.The volumes originated from the US, Europe, Middle East and Asia.The export volume fell from around 83,000 tonnes in February and more than 108,000 tonnes in January.The month-on-month slowdown contrasted with a rise in total shipments from year-earlier levels, especially from the US and especially to Nigeria.The dynamic left the US accounting for more than 50% of total exports to the four African countries in March for the first time since late-2023.The rise in supplies from the US helped to lift total exports to the four African countries to more than 269,000 tonnes in the first three months of the year.The volume rose by 18% from a year-earlier to the second-highest quarterly level since 2022. The highest level since then was in the fourth quarter of last year.Exports from the US accounted for 41% of the first-quarter volume..The share rose from around 35% of the total in second-half 2024 and typical levels of less than 25% of the total before last year.Most of the additional US shipments moved to Nigeria.The dynamic suggested that a large portion of the additional supplies from the US consisted of spot rather than term volumes and helped to cover for a drop in such supplies from Europe.The scenario in turn exposed buyers to the risk of a drop in shipments if US supply tightened, cutting availability of spot volumes.The scenario also exposed US suppliers to the risk of a drop in demand if buyers lined up alternative sources of spot shipments from other refiners.The expected start-up of a swathe of new base oils production capacity in Asia and the Middle East over the coming year is set to boost global supply.Those additional volumes could provide buyers with such alternative supply options..Global exports to Middle East stay lower in April.US' March base oils exports stay high
