Global base oils exports to key markets in Africa fell in February as a dip in shipments from Europe outweighed higher volumes from the US.The dynamic highlighted the structurally tighter availability in Europe and persistent surplus supply in the US.Any extension of that dynamic could add the incentive for buyers to line up more supplies on a more regular basis from the US.Total exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya combined came to more than 80,000 tonnes in February, government data showed..The volume fell from more than 105,000 tonnes the previous month and held just above typical shipments of around 79,000 tonnes/month in 2024.The supplies mostly originated from US and Europe, as well as smaller volumes from other markets like Middle East and Asia.Exports slowed as supplies from Europe dipped to a five-month low of close to 40,000 tonnes, from more than 70,000 tonnes in January.The slowdown cut Europe’s share of exports to Africa to less than 50% of the total for the second time since last November.Europe’s share of exports fell below that level just two times during the previous four years to last October and accounted for 64% of total exports in 2024.Europe’s lower share of exports in recent months reflected the region’s dwindling surplus availability of Group I base oils, especially of spot volumes.The tighter availability impacted flows to Nigeria especially.Europe’s exports of less than 1,000 tonnes to the country in February were the lowest in nineteen months.The lower volumes followed a dip in shipments to the West African country in 2024 to the lowest in at least five years.A sustained pick-up in supplies from the US since the middle of last year helped to cover the shortfall.US exports of more than 125,000 tonnes to Nigeria in the six months to February more than tripled from the previous six months and more than doubled from year-earlier levels.The trend showed signs of extending into March, when several more shipments were lined up to move from the US to Nigeria.Exports from Europe and US to Nigeria typically included a large volume of spot shipments.The recent trade flows highlighted the tighter availability of spot supplies in Europe and the larger surplus availability in US.They also left buyers in markets like Nigeria exposed to the risk of a drop in shipments from the US if availability tightened in that market.Such a scenario could boost the attraction for buyers to line up more term contracts for shipments from the US..Global exports to Middle East fall in March.US’ February base oils exports rise.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
