Europe’s base oils exports to key markets in Africa fell to a five-month low in August at a time of year when demand faced a seasonal slowdown in outlets like Nigeria.A slowdown in term shipments to those markets contrasted with signs of a pick-up in spot volumes at a time of year when Europe also faced a seasonal slowdown in demand.The drop in shipments raised the prospect of squeezing inventory levels in markets like West Africa and South Africa and a subsequent pick-up in demand to replenish those low stocks.The pick-up in demand showed signs of focusing more on shipments from North and South America rather than Europe in recent weeks.Europe’s base oils exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya combined edged down to around 41,000 tonnes in August, government data showed..The volume fell from 42,000 tonnes the previous month to the lowest since March.Europe accounted for 60% of total exports to those markets in the first seven months of the year, with the US the second-largest source of supplies.Europe’s share was down from more than 70% of total exports during the same period in 2024, reflecting the US’ growing share of shipments to those markets..But exports from the US fell sharply from May, reflecting the more volatile flows from that source. The volatility reflected spot shipments accounting for a larger share of the supplies.The dip in US shipments from May impacted flows to Nigeria especially. Term volumes from Europe and a seasonal slowdown in demand in Nigeria cushioned the slowdown in US shipments since then.A spot shipment from southern Europe to Nigeria then cushioned the impact of a dip in term volumes from Europe in August.Shipments to Nigeria showed signs of reviving in September amid a pick-up in term volumes from Europe, as well as spot shipments from the US and Egypt.The pick-up in flows coincided with a seasonal recovery in Nigeria’s demand at the end of the rainy season.The pick-up in spot flows from US and Egypt, and in October from Argentina, contrasted with the pause in such shipments from Europe.The dynamic pointed to surplus availability of Group I base oils in those other markets and competitive prices for the supplies.It pointed to insufficient surplus availability of Group I base oils in Europe or less competitive prices for any supplies that were available.It also highlighted a pick-up in supply-options for buyers, with that development likely to continue over the coming months..Asia's September base oils exports to Middle East rise.Global exports to Africa fall in July.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
