· Americas base oils demand likely to stay mixed.· US demand faces seasonal slowdown, Mexico’s demand set to slide, economic slowdown compounds fall in Argentina’s demand.· Brazil’s demand likely to get support from firm lube consumption and base oil plant maintenance throughout 2H 2023.· US base oils exports likely to need to stay higher than usual to counter seasonal dip in domestic demand over coming months..· US’ August base oils/lube demand already falls to six-month low on slowdown in exports, slide in domestic consumption to third-lowest on record..· Fall in demand highlights importance of firm export volumes to balance out weaker domestic consumption.· Fall in demand highlights impact of drop in export volumes in face of dwindling arbitrage opportunities..· Argentina’s September lube demand falls for seventh time in eight months as economy slows..· Slowing lube consumption limits the country’s ability to absorb more base oils supplies.· More limited arbitrage opportunities from Asia to Latin America likely to continue to support steadier demand for US base oils shipments.· Trend highlights importance of keeping shut the arbitrage from Asia.· Even so, Argentina’s currency depreciation complicates shipments from any overseas markets..· Europe’s base oils demand could face smaller-than-usual seasonal slowdown.· Regional blenders’ already-low inventories reduce need to slash procurement requirements at year-end.· Regional blenders’ low stocks contrast with their high inventories during 2H 2022.· Signs that drop in regional lube demand may be starting to bottom out would add to blenders’ need and willingness to maintain steady inventory levels.· Germany’s August lube demand falls at slowest pace in more than two years..· Germany’s August lube demand rises from July at a time of year when consumption usually falls.· Trend suggests drop in lube consumption may be close to bottoming out.· Slower fall in consumption still contrasts with rising demand in Mediterranean market.· Germany’s August lube demand outpaces Spain/Italy’s combined consumption for first time in eleven months..· Steadier demand in Europe’s largest market would boost base oils requirements and facilitate blenders’ feedstock procurement plans.· Steadier demand would facilitate refiners’ base oils production plans, curbing risk of oversupply..· Netherlands’ August base oils/lube demand holds unusually firm amid signs that some supplies were consumed within the country's refining system..· Netherlands’ August base oils exports fall less than usual amid rise in shipments to markets outside Europe.· Firmer-than-usual consumption in month of August counters seasonal slowdown in regional finished lube demand, curbing buildup of surplus supplies in Q3 2023..· Europe faces prospect of more persistent demand for Group I supplies from southeast Asia.· Trend follows closure of Group I plant in Japan in Oct 2023.· Plant closure coincides with surge in shipments from Italy to Singapore in Oct 2023..Global base oils - week of Nov 6: Price outlook - margins
· Americas base oils demand likely to stay mixed.· US demand faces seasonal slowdown, Mexico’s demand set to slide, economic slowdown compounds fall in Argentina’s demand.· Brazil’s demand likely to get support from firm lube consumption and base oil plant maintenance throughout 2H 2023.· US base oils exports likely to need to stay higher than usual to counter seasonal dip in domestic demand over coming months..· US’ August base oils/lube demand already falls to six-month low on slowdown in exports, slide in domestic consumption to third-lowest on record..· Fall in demand highlights importance of firm export volumes to balance out weaker domestic consumption.· Fall in demand highlights impact of drop in export volumes in face of dwindling arbitrage opportunities..· Argentina’s September lube demand falls for seventh time in eight months as economy slows..· Slowing lube consumption limits the country’s ability to absorb more base oils supplies.· More limited arbitrage opportunities from Asia to Latin America likely to continue to support steadier demand for US base oils shipments.· Trend highlights importance of keeping shut the arbitrage from Asia.· Even so, Argentina’s currency depreciation complicates shipments from any overseas markets..· Europe’s base oils demand could face smaller-than-usual seasonal slowdown.· Regional blenders’ already-low inventories reduce need to slash procurement requirements at year-end.· Regional blenders’ low stocks contrast with their high inventories during 2H 2022.· Signs that drop in regional lube demand may be starting to bottom out would add to blenders’ need and willingness to maintain steady inventory levels.· Germany’s August lube demand falls at slowest pace in more than two years..· Germany’s August lube demand rises from July at a time of year when consumption usually falls.· Trend suggests drop in lube consumption may be close to bottoming out.· Slower fall in consumption still contrasts with rising demand in Mediterranean market.· Germany’s August lube demand outpaces Spain/Italy’s combined consumption for first time in eleven months..· Steadier demand in Europe’s largest market would boost base oils requirements and facilitate blenders’ feedstock procurement plans.· Steadier demand would facilitate refiners’ base oils production plans, curbing risk of oversupply..· Netherlands’ August base oils/lube demand holds unusually firm amid signs that some supplies were consumed within the country's refining system..· Netherlands’ August base oils exports fall less than usual amid rise in shipments to markets outside Europe.· Firmer-than-usual consumption in month of August counters seasonal slowdown in regional finished lube demand, curbing buildup of surplus supplies in Q3 2023..· Europe faces prospect of more persistent demand for Group I supplies from southeast Asia.· Trend follows closure of Group I plant in Japan in Oct 2023.· Plant closure coincides with surge in shipments from Italy to Singapore in Oct 2023..Global base oils - week of Nov 6: Price outlook - margins
