US gasoline demand rises for an eighteenth week in 2H July but at slowest pace in more than a month. .· US base oils demand could get support from any signs of tighter-than-expected supply or upward price pressure.· US blenders’ lower stocks leave them more exposed to any unexpected supply disruptions over coming weeks.· Updated forecasts anticipate more active US hurricane season over coming months amid unusually warm Atlantic water temperatures.· Latin America’s Q3 lube demand likely to fall less than expected vs Q2 2023 as consumption holds firmer than other regions..· Latin America’s steadier demand boosts attraction of targeting region with more base oils supplies.· US likely to be main beneficiary of stronger-than-expected demand in Latin America amid open arbitrage, less feasible arbitrage from other regions..· Brazil’s lube demand extends strong rise in June amid reviving consumption of industry-related lubricants..· Improving demand for industrial oils points to more widespread recovery, contrasts with slower industrial oils consumption in other regions like Europe.· Surge in US base oils exports to Argentina in first five months of this year reflect impact of its lower export prices and closed arbitrage from other markets to Argentina..· Dynamic likely to continue at least over coming months, easing prospect of significant supply-build in US during Q3 2023.· Dynamic highlights impact of competitive export prices and cost of uncompetitive prices, especially at a time of rising domestic supplies.· Europe’s lube demand faces strong seasonal rise in demand from September even as outright consumption trends lower..· Seasonal pick-up in demand would coincide with blenders’ strategy of maintaining lower inventories.· Last year’s seasonal pick-up in demand coincided with blenders’ moves to cut bloated inventories.· Blenders’ higher inventories last year muffled impact of seasonal pick-up in demand.· Italy’s June lube demand rises for first time in five months on ongoing revival in industrial oils consumption..· Stronger lube consumption contrasts with other markets in Europe, reflecting more diverse demand performance in the region.· Trend points to slower contraction in regional lube demand, with pockets of stronger growth.· Nigerian buyers cover more of their base oils requirements with supplies from US in recent months amid drop in surplus Group I supplies in Europe..· Europe faces prospect of smaller surplus volume of Group I supplies in coming months compared with year-earlier levels.· Such a scenario would leave Nigerian buyers seeking more supplies from sources like US over coming months.· Trend would contrast with slowdown in shipments from US to Nigeria in 2H 2022..Global base oils - week of July 31: Price outlook - margins
US gasoline demand rises for an eighteenth week in 2H July but at slowest pace in more than a month. .· US base oils demand could get support from any signs of tighter-than-expected supply or upward price pressure.· US blenders’ lower stocks leave them more exposed to any unexpected supply disruptions over coming weeks.· Updated forecasts anticipate more active US hurricane season over coming months amid unusually warm Atlantic water temperatures.· Latin America’s Q3 lube demand likely to fall less than expected vs Q2 2023 as consumption holds firmer than other regions..· Latin America’s steadier demand boosts attraction of targeting region with more base oils supplies.· US likely to be main beneficiary of stronger-than-expected demand in Latin America amid open arbitrage, less feasible arbitrage from other regions..· Brazil’s lube demand extends strong rise in June amid reviving consumption of industry-related lubricants..· Improving demand for industrial oils points to more widespread recovery, contrasts with slower industrial oils consumption in other regions like Europe.· Surge in US base oils exports to Argentina in first five months of this year reflect impact of its lower export prices and closed arbitrage from other markets to Argentina..· Dynamic likely to continue at least over coming months, easing prospect of significant supply-build in US during Q3 2023.· Dynamic highlights impact of competitive export prices and cost of uncompetitive prices, especially at a time of rising domestic supplies.· Europe’s lube demand faces strong seasonal rise in demand from September even as outright consumption trends lower..· Seasonal pick-up in demand would coincide with blenders’ strategy of maintaining lower inventories.· Last year’s seasonal pick-up in demand coincided with blenders’ moves to cut bloated inventories.· Blenders’ higher inventories last year muffled impact of seasonal pick-up in demand.· Italy’s June lube demand rises for first time in five months on ongoing revival in industrial oils consumption..· Stronger lube consumption contrasts with other markets in Europe, reflecting more diverse demand performance in the region.· Trend points to slower contraction in regional lube demand, with pockets of stronger growth.· Nigerian buyers cover more of their base oils requirements with supplies from US in recent months amid drop in surplus Group I supplies in Europe..· Europe faces prospect of smaller surplus volume of Group I supplies in coming months compared with year-earlier levels.· Such a scenario would leave Nigerian buyers seeking more supplies from sources like US over coming months.· Trend would contrast with slowdown in shipments from US to Nigeria in 2H 2022..Global base oils - week of July 31: Price outlook - margins
