· US base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices holds at elevated levels, sustaining incentive for refiners to maximise production.· Persistently-firm margins point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Signs of steady base oils exports, even with less competitive base oil prices, could slow pace of any supply-build..· US base oils and lube shipments already rebound in June 2024 to second-highest level this year..· Rising exports coincide with plant-maintenance work and round of stock-building in June 2024.· Signs of firmer domestic and overseas demand and lower domestic output in June 2024 keeps surplus supply tighter heading into Q3 2024.· Lube exports in June 2024 include pick-up in shipments to regular outlets like Mexico and to less frequent outlets like Lithuania.· Shipments likely add to tighter availability of Group II light-grade base oils.· Weak US Group III prices curb attraction of moving overseas shipments to the country.· Shipments still show signs of rebounding from Asia in July 2024 and from Middle East in June 2024.· Rise in shipments adds to volumes from domestic producers, leaving US Group III market well supplied in Q3 2024. · Shipments from Asia to US show signs of holding firmer throughout Q3 2024..· Europe’s firm Group I base oils prices sustain attraction of moving more shipments to the region.· Europe’s Group I base oils supply gets support from pick-up in flows from regional sources like Italy, Greece and Turkey, as well as overseas sources like Saudi Arabia and US.· Another cargo of US origin set to reach Europe in H2 Aug 2024.· Turkey’s June Group I base oils imports from Russia rise to highest in more than eight years, contrasting with pause in Turkey's imports from Greece for first time in more than a decade.· Diverging trade flows leave shipments from Russia accounting for larger share of Turkey’s imports than shipments from Europe for second time since 2016..· Turkey’s rising imports from Russia free up more domestic supplies for export to Europe.· Dynamic allows Turkey to benefit from imports of low-priced supplies and exports to high-priced market..· Turkey’s rising imports from Russia also free up more domestic supplies for export to Ukraine.· Turkey's exports of Group I base oils to Ukraine rise in June 2024 to highest in more than five years..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply likely to remain readily available in Q3 2024 after surge in US exports to the region in June 2024..· More large shipments from US move to Europe in July 2024, adding to supply.· Shipments stay high even as rising US prices narrow their discount to Europe prices.· Rebound in shipments coincides with resumption of normal Group II base oils production in Europe in Q2 2024 following maintenance work earlier in the year.· More plentiful supply would cushion against any weather-related supply disruptions in the US over the coming weeks..· Europe’s Group III base oils supply could tighten in the coming months as planned plant shutdowns in southeast Asia and Europe cut shipment volumes..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Global base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Türkiye’s June base oils imports from Russia rise.US’ June base oils exports to Europe rise
· US base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices holds at elevated levels, sustaining incentive for refiners to maximise production.· Persistently-firm margins point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Signs of steady base oils exports, even with less competitive base oil prices, could slow pace of any supply-build..· US base oils and lube shipments already rebound in June 2024 to second-highest level this year..· Rising exports coincide with plant-maintenance work and round of stock-building in June 2024.· Signs of firmer domestic and overseas demand and lower domestic output in June 2024 keeps surplus supply tighter heading into Q3 2024.· Lube exports in June 2024 include pick-up in shipments to regular outlets like Mexico and to less frequent outlets like Lithuania.· Shipments likely add to tighter availability of Group II light-grade base oils.· Weak US Group III prices curb attraction of moving overseas shipments to the country.· Shipments still show signs of rebounding from Asia in July 2024 and from Middle East in June 2024.· Rise in shipments adds to volumes from domestic producers, leaving US Group III market well supplied in Q3 2024. · Shipments from Asia to US show signs of holding firmer throughout Q3 2024..· Europe’s firm Group I base oils prices sustain attraction of moving more shipments to the region.· Europe’s Group I base oils supply gets support from pick-up in flows from regional sources like Italy, Greece and Turkey, as well as overseas sources like Saudi Arabia and US.· Another cargo of US origin set to reach Europe in H2 Aug 2024.· Turkey’s June Group I base oils imports from Russia rise to highest in more than eight years, contrasting with pause in Turkey's imports from Greece for first time in more than a decade.· Diverging trade flows leave shipments from Russia accounting for larger share of Turkey’s imports than shipments from Europe for second time since 2016..· Turkey’s rising imports from Russia free up more domestic supplies for export to Europe.· Dynamic allows Turkey to benefit from imports of low-priced supplies and exports to high-priced market..· Turkey’s rising imports from Russia also free up more domestic supplies for export to Ukraine.· Turkey's exports of Group I base oils to Ukraine rise in June 2024 to highest in more than five years..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply likely to remain readily available in Q3 2024 after surge in US exports to the region in June 2024..· More large shipments from US move to Europe in July 2024, adding to supply.· Shipments stay high even as rising US prices narrow their discount to Europe prices.· Rebound in shipments coincides with resumption of normal Group II base oils production in Europe in Q2 2024 following maintenance work earlier in the year.· More plentiful supply would cushion against any weather-related supply disruptions in the US over the coming weeks..· Europe’s Group III base oils supply could tighten in the coming months as planned plant shutdowns in southeast Asia and Europe cut shipment volumes..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Global base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 Aug.Türkiye’s June base oils imports from Russia rise.US’ June base oils exports to Europe rise
